Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NZD, TRY

Published: Monday, 20 June 2011 14:53 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NZD, TRY

POUND STERLING

The Rightmove House Price survey for June, released overnight, showed that the monthly increase in UK house prices slowed last month. However, this disappointing housing data has not caused any significant downward pressure on Sterling, as investors sit on their hands ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of England minutes. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6201

The Dollar has weakened against the other majors during today’s session as investors’ fears of an imminent Greek debt meltdown receded and global risk appetite picked up. With little US data releases of note due out until Wednesday, the Dollar remains vulnerable to comments from ECB policy-makers regarding plans for a second Greek bail-out. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1320

Yesterday’s Eurozone Finance Ministers’ meeting produced a commitment to arrange a second Greek bail-out, easing the severe pressure that the single currency came under in the middle part of last week. However, data released this morning showed that German Producer Prices are increasing at a lower rate than had been anticipated. This disappointing leading indicator may cause market participants to downgrade their expectations of an ECB interest rate rise next month. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL .


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5339


Poor Japanese Trade Balance figures released overnight have hit the Australian Dollar harder than most, due to its strong trade links with the Asian giant. With recent Australian data releases generally failing to hit expectations and ongoing global fears of a European sovereign debt meltdown, there is scope for the Aussie to weaken. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR – The Pound New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (GBP/NZD) is 2.0017

The Kiwi has performed as badly as any of the majors, with the possible exception of the Aussie, in the currency markets today. Last night’s Q1 Manufacturing Activity data showed a quarterly contraction in New Zealand’s manufacturing output. This has seen the GBP NZD rate settle above 2.00:1 following its recent excursion into the 1.96s. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


NEW TURKISH LIRA – The Pound New Turkish Lira exchange rate (GBP/TRY) is 2.6041

The Turkish Lira has been broadly trending weaker against the majors since the start of April, when the GBP TRY exchange rate traded down to 2.46. The Lira continues to act as a proxy currency for investors looking to trade the illiquid Egyptian Pound and generally untradeable Syrian and Libyan currencies. Continued violence and uncertainty in North Africa and beyond could see the GBP TRY make further gains in coming months, with this year’s high of 2.6552 providing a target rate. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEGATIVE.


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