Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NOK

Published: Tuesday, 4 October 2011 16:47 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NOK

POUND STERLING

There was more bad news for the UK economy earlier today with the release of September’s PMI manufacturing survey, which showed that growth in the UK’s manufacturing sector came close to grinding to a halt last month. The Halifax House Price survey released tonight could provide further cause for concern. NEAR -TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.5387

The Greenback has given up significant ground against the Euro on the day, suggesting that investors feel that the Eurozone debt crisis is at a less perilous stage than they did over the weekend and are now regaining some appetite for risk. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke struck an uncharacteristically hawkish tone during his JEC testimony this afternoon, stating that the Fed stood ready to increase interest rates if rising prices warranted this action. This could cause a renewed bout of support for the Dollar. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1591

The Euro has made a pronounced comeback in the currency markets this afternoon having come under heavy selling pressure in the early part of this week’s session. This morning’s better-than-anticipated German and Eurozone PMI Manufacturing data has helped, but the move has largely been driven by a subsiding of panic levels regarding Greece’s debts. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.6294


The Australian Dollar lost further ground against the other majors overnight, but now looks to have hit a level of resistance. From a technical perspective, the Aussie has weakened a long way in a short space of time, so a reversal is possible. This could be triggered by key risk events tonight in the form of August’s domestic Trade Balance figures and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


NORWEGIAN KRONE – The Pound Norwegian Krone exchange rate (GBP/NOK) is 9.1153

The Norwegian Krone has weakened significantly against the other 16 most-actively traded currencies over the past four weeks. This is partly due to the ongoing threat from Norway’s central bank to actively weaken the Krone in order to take the pressure off domestic exporters. Fears over the future growth prospects for the global economy, driven by recent downgrades to growth projections by the IMF and various central banks, have also hurt the Krone due to Norway’s dependency on oil exports. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


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