Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, TRY

11 Oct 2011 at 2 PM - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, TRY

POUND STERLING

This morning’s UK Manufacturing Production data showed a monthly contraction of 0.3% in British manufacturing output between July and August, providing more bad news for the UK economy. If tomorrow’s UK Jobless Claims Change figure provides further evidence that the slowdown in the UK economy is picking up pace, then it Sterling could endure a limp finish to the trading week. NEAR -TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.5650

A down-tick in global risk sentiment today has seen some support for the Greenback as investors return to the safety of the US treasury bill, following yesterday’s move weaker. Tonight’s release of the minutes of the most recent Federal Reserve FOMC meeting could cause a renewed move against the Dollar if they reveal that policy-makers are seriously considering a ramping-up of the US’s asset purchase scheme. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1494

The recent drift for the Euro, which has been caused by the lack of a cogent policy for tackling the Eurozone’s debt crisis, has continued on the day, with the news that the EU leaders’ debt crisis summit, pencilled in for next week, is to be delayed until 23rd October in order to give the EU more time to ‘finalise’ its ‘comprehensive strategy’. The EU’s plans could be completely de-railed if Slovakia, the last of the 17 Euro-countries to vote on the proposals, fails to rubber stamp the beefing- up of the Eurozone’s bail-out fund later today. On a more positive note, indications are that financial inspectors will ‘OK’ Greece’s next tranche of bail-out funds. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5721

The Australian Dollar held on to the gains it made on Monday during last night’s Asian session as Far Eastern stock indices traded into positive territory. However, this morning’s European session has seen a marked turnaround in appetite for risk as investors start to get the jitters over the continued absence of a battle plan to tackle Eurozone debts. Tonight’s Westpac Consumer Confidence survey will provide the Aussie with further direction. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


NEW TURKISH LIRA – The Pound New Turkish Lira exchange rate (GBP/TRY) is 2.8028

The Lira enjoyed a good day on the currency markets yesterday as investor sentiment towards Turkey’s major trading partner, the Eurozone, improved thanks to promises by France and Germany’s leaders that they would come up with a solution to Europe’s debt crisis. However, the Lira has given back much of these gains today as Turkey’s central bank prepares to launch a series of bond auctions and investors fret over this morning’s data release which showed that Turkey’s current account deficit has more than doubled over the last 8 months. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEGATIVE.


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