Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NOK

Published: Wednesday, 12 October 2011 16:07 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NOK

POUND STERLING

Figures from the UK’s Office of National Statistics released this morning showed that British unemployment reached a 17-year high of 2.57m last month. The data also showed that almost 1m 16-24 year olds in the UK are without a job. These depressing numbers have held back Sterling on the day. NEAR -TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.5771

The Greenback has weakened dramatically against the other majors during today’s session. This is largely due to a forward move in global risk sentiment following more encouraging recent economic data releases and partly as a reaction to positive sounds from European policy-makers regarding an imminent plan to tackle sovereign debts. Last night’s vote in favour of domestic tariffs intended to limit cheap Chinese imports has further held back the Dollar. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1425

The Euro has held up relatively well during today’s trading in spite of Slovakia’s vetoing of the proposed expansion of the Eurozone bail-out fund late yesterday. Analysts think that the Slovaks will quickly hold a second vote which is likely to support the proposal. This morning’s whole-of-Eurozone Industrial Production data showed that Europe’s industrial output unexpectedly expanded in August, which helped prop up the Euro on the day. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5493


The Australian Dollar has surged during today’s session as appetite for risk floods back into global markets. Last night’s domestic home loans data came out better than analysts had anticipated and public statements from German and French policy-makers over the past 24 hours suggesting that a tangible plan to deal with Eurozone sovereign debts is close at hand, have also helped. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


NORWEGIAN KRONE – The Pound Norwegian Krone exchange rate (GBP/NOK) is 8.8635

The Norwegian Krone has traded steadily against the other 16 most-actively traded currencies on the day. With Norway’s fortunes inextricably linked to those of its major trading partner, the Eurozone, support for the Krone is likely to be limited until Slovakia’s parliament delivers a ‘yes’ vote to the proposed extension to the Eurozone bail-out fund. Today’s positive move in commodities prices is likely to stop the Krone from losing any ground for the next couple of trading sessions, at least. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


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