Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, TRY

Published: Tuesday, 18 October 2011 14:22 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, TRY

POUND STERLING

This morning’s UK CPI Inflation data for September showed that British prices are rising at an annualised 5.2% versus the government’s target of 2%. Ordinarily a release of this nature would see the economy in question’s currency come in for strong support, however the Pound has struggled to make gains on the day, suggesting that investors feel that there is no hope of the Bank of England raising interest rates for the foreseeable future. NEAR -TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.5725

This afternoon’s US Producer Price Index data printed at a higher-than-anticipated level, suggesting that American consumer prices may be on the march again. However, the US Dollar has failed to gain any significant ground following the release, with many investors sitting on their hands and waiting for news to emerge regarding the Eurozone debt crisis before amending their positions. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1464

This morning’s major risk event in the Eurozone saw the release of this month’s ZEW Survey in Germany. Both the Economic Sentiment and Current Situation elements of the survey disappointed analysts, sending the Euro lower against Sterling and the US Dollar. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5444


The Australian Dollar has continued to ease against the other majors on the day as investors remain wary of getting involved in riskier assets due to a lack of resolution for Europe’s debt crisis. Last night’s lower-than-anticipated Chinese GDP figures have further dampened market participants’ hopes for the Australian economy. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


NEW TURKISH LIRA – The Pound New Turkish Lira exchange rate (GBP/TRY) is 2.9148

Demand for the Lira remains weak due to Turkey’s emerging market status and the highly risk-sensitive nature of the country’s currency. This has led the GBP TRY rate to hit its highest level for over a decade in the last 24 hours. With Turkey’s central bank actively intervening in the currency market to manipulate the Lira’s levels, the future is difficult to predict. However today’s action by Turkey’s Central Bank to step in and sell $1.35bn of assets in order to stem the Lira’s losses indicates that the recent bout of Lira weakness may be nearing an end. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


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TAGS: American Dollar Forecasts Australian Dollar Forecasts Currency Predi Forecasts