Exchange Rate Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, NZD

Modified: Tuesday, 24 January 2012 17:54 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Exchange Rate Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, NZD

POUND STERLING

Investors holding Sterling assets sat on their hands today, ahead of tomorrow’s key UK data releases. Both the Bank of England Minutes of its January meeting and the advanced UK Q4 GDP data are penned in for release at 0930hrs GMT tomorrow morning. Various outcomes are possible, with the potential nightmare scenario coming if the MPC Minutes show that the committee held serious discussions regarding an increase to the BoE’s asset purchase scheme and the GDP figures show a contraction in British economic activity in the last 3 months of 2011. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP USD) is 1.5598

The Greenback has failed to garner any pronounced support in the currency markets on the day, in spite of escalating concerns regarding the intentions of Iran’s leaders following the imposition of an oil embargo on the Persian state by EU finance ministers. Any disruption of supply by Iran could see a flight to quality by institutional investors, sending the Dollar higher. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP EUR) is 1.1988

Europe’s single currency has experienced an erratic session today, as investors wait to hear about developments to emerge from the ongoing developments in the debt discussions between the eurogroup and Greece’s creditors. The longer the delay continues, the more nervous investors will become; conversely a rapid resolution could spark a Euro recovery. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR – The Pound New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (GBP NZD) is 1.9260


Global stock markets have suffered a pronounced wobble on the day, as fears mount that Iran is set to destabilise global supplies of crude oil by carrying out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz – a key strategic waterway, through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes on an annual basis as it moves from the Middle East to lucrative Western markets. The IMF’s observation that the global economy is ‘deeply in the danger zone’ because of the ongoing eurozone debt crisis has further diminished investors’ appetite for risk. This could cause the NZD to come under selling pressure for the remainder of the week. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


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