On the face of it, today was a poor day for the UK economy, with official government data showing that British economic activity contracted by 0.2% in the final quarter of 2011. The minutes of the most recent Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting were also released, showing that several members are keen to extend the current £275bn ear-marked for the Bank’s quantitative easing programme. Sterling has held up well against the other majors, in spite of these apparently negative releases. However, investors should be wary of a potential backlash. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.
US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP USD) is 1.5567
Tonight’s Federal Reserve FOMC announcement in the states is almost certain to see US interest rates maintained at their record low range of 0-0.25%. However, there is a distinct possibility that US policy-makers will opt to announce a new tranche of QE in the world’s leading economy. This could harm the Greenback. Conversely, a continuation of the standoff between Greece’s creditors and the eurogroup could elicit a new wave of support for the safe-haven Dollar. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.
EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP EUR) is 1.1996
Things continue to look good for the eurozone’s powerhouse economy, as an auction of 30 year German bills earlier today, saw the full complement of bunds shifted at record low yields. Things are not so rosy for Greece, as the debt-addled country’s creditors continue to hold out for a more generous settlement in their negotiations with the eurogroup. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.
CANADIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP CAD) is 1.5751
The Canadian Dollar has failed to make any significant headway against the other majors on the day. With little in the way of domestic data releases, the CAD suffered as global stock markets gave up ground – bad news for risk-sensitive commodity export-driven currencies like the Canadian Dollar. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.
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