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Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AED

February 2, 2012 - Written by John Cameron

POUND STERLING

This morning’s UK PMI Manufacturing sector survey came out weaker than anticipated. However, to put a more positive spin on the data, it did show that Britain’s manufacturing base has started to expand once again. Antagonistic comments from MPC member Adam Posen, accusing British retail banks of choking the supply of credit to UK businesses, may prove unhelpful. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP USD) is 1.5822

The Greenback has made a limited comeback on the day, seeing it strengthen against both the GBP and USD. The Dollar may find further support ahead of tomorrow’s key Non-Farm Payrolls data in the US, following public comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke which re-affirmed the US currency’s status as a safe-haven. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP EUR) is 1.2006

Today’s eurozone PPI data for December printed as per expectations, but showed a drop from November’s number. This gives the ECB increased leeway to consider further interest rate cuts, placing pressure on the euro. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


ARAB EMIRATES DIRHAM – The Pound Dirham exchange rate (GBP AED) is 5.8072
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The Dirham remains directly pegged to the US Dollar, so any relative strength, or weakness, in the USD is directly mirrored in Dirham movements. The GBP AED exchange rate has pushed higher since its near-term low of 16th January, as global appetite for risk ticked upwards. However, the rally has hit the buffers in the last 48hrs thanks to the return of risk aversion over continuing regarding the eurozone’s continuing debt saga. There could be further upside for the Dirham in coming sessions. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


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