Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, TRY

Modified: Friday, 3 February 2012 16:38 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, TRY

POUND STERLING

This morning’s UK PMI Services sector survey printed at a higher than expected level, showing that Britain’s key service sector is expanding at its fastest rate for almost a year. However, this positive news was cancelled out by a report from a widely-respected think tank – the NIESR, which predicted that the UK’s economy will contract in 2012. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP USD) is 1.5765
This afternoon’s key US Non-Farm Payrolls figure for December registered at 243,000 – far better than the 150,000 which had been anticipated by analysts. As ever, the market’s reaction was volatile as speculators rapidly adjusted their positions. The shakedown is likely to see the Greenback weaken as global appetite for risk picks up. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP EUR) is 1.2030

Whole of eurozone data disappointed this morning, with December’s retail sales numbers providing particular cause for concern. German and whole of eurozone service sector data also came out worse than expected. Given the weak nature of these numbers and the continued absence of a debt deal from Greece, next week could see tough trading conditions for Europe’s single currency. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


NEW TURKISH LIRA – The Pound New Turkish Lira exchange rate (GBP TRY) is 2.7627


The Lira has made a storming comeback in the markets following the run against it which culminated in the GBP TRY rate spiralling to almost touch 3:1 just after Christmas. The Turkish currency was well-bid during today’s session, due to higher than anticipated domestic inflation numbers which make a tightening of monetary policy by the Turkish Central Bank more likely. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – POSITIVE.


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