The Bank of England chose to maintain its current policy stance yesterday and the POUND STERLING registered short term gains as a knee-jerk reaction. The decision against further Quantitative Easing came as a relief, but within hours investors were shifting out of Sterling-denominated assets thanks to fears over levels of governmental debt in the UK. The outlook for the Pound remains NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.
The EURO has registered hefty gains against both the Pound and the US Dollar over the past 24hrs. Investors were relieved that the European Central Bank resisted the temptation to trim interest rates yesterday. However, the single currency’s positive performance following ECB President Draghi’s post announcement press conference left many analysts scratching their heads. Draghi revealed that his Bank had discussed an interest rate cut and observed that inflation in the eurozone is dropping at a faster than anticipated level. The euro is expected to trade on a NEUTRAL footing moving forward and the current GBP EUR exchange rate stands at 1.1470.
The US DOLLAR leaked support against most of the other sixteen most-actively traded currencies during yesterday's session. The move against the Greenback came ahead of today's key Non-Farm Payroll data, which given the encouraging tone of this week’s ADP Employment, US Factory Orders and Initial Jobless Claims stats, could well better expectations. Such an outcome may trigger a shift out of safe-haven assets, harming the ‘Buck’. The GBP USD exchange rate sits at 1.5008 and the Dollar is expected to trade with a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE bias for the remainder of the week.
The go-ahead AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR has climbed to within a quarter of a cent of its 28-year high against Sterling during yesterday’s European session, sending the GBP AUD exchange rate to 1.4582. Support for the ‘Aussie’ came in spite of Wednesday night’s highly disappointing Australian Trade Balance data for January. With bitter budgetary talks ongoing in the States and the political situation in Italy still unresolved, global risk sentiment may dictate that the AUD has done all that it is going to do in the short term; the prognosis for the ‘Aussie’ for the remainder of the week is NEUTRAL.
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