GBP TRY Exchange Rate Forecast To Fall, Outlook Is Positive For GBP AUD, GBP NZD

Modified: Sunday, 19 May 2013 14:32 BST - Written by Toni Johnson

STORY LINK GBP TRY Exchange Rate Forecast To Fall, Outlook Is Positive For GBP AUD, GBP NZD

A press release from leading credit ratings agency Moody’s Investor Services, released during Friday’s session, spelled good news for Turkey and for the Turkish Lira. Moody’s announced that they had upgraded their credit rating of the Mediterranean nation’s sovereign debt to Baa3. The move means that Turkish bonds are now considered to be of ‘investment standard’, allowing them to be bought up by a large number of global funds. The Pound to Turkish Lira exchange rate (currency : GBP TRY) ended last week’s session at 2.7942, but expect the pair to register renewed losses as the Lira starts this week’s session firmly on the front foot.

Elsewhere, perhaps the biggest loser in the global markets last week was Gold. The precious metal’s value slumped by almost $100 from its opening level of $1,446 per troy oz, as investors continued to factor-in a significantly more stable global picture as the situation in the markets continues to return to some kind of normality following the worldwide credit crisis which reared its ugly head in 2007.

The move lower for gold last week was also partly triggered by the news of a short sale order placed on the New York exchange during the previous Friday’s trading session. Market whispers suggest that the sell order was for either 400 or 500 tonnes of gold – a massive quantity on a global scale. Investors speculated that the order was so large that it must have been placed by a major global central bank. Suspects included the US Federal Reserve, (who analysts posited may have wanted to dump gold on the market in order to cause the US Dollar to accumulate). Other rumours suggested that it was Italy’s central bank cashing-in on its gold reserves in an attempt to bring the nation’s massive government deficit under control, or alternatively an action by the Bank of Japan aimed at further weakening the Yen.

The weekly loss of almost 7% for gold is likely to elicit further losses for other global commodities. With the market price of raw materials now looking at having ‘topped out’ in 2011, it would appear likely that there will be further losses for gold, along with oil and base metals, in the near-term. Such a scenario would cause current market investors to shift out of the Australian and New Zealand Dollars along with the South African Rand and the Canadian Dollar. There may be gains to come for GBP AUD, GBP NZD, GBP ZAR and GBP CAD.

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: American Dollar Forecasts Australian Dollar Forecasts Canadian Dolla Forecasts