Exchange Rate Forecasts: Pound Sterling, Euro, US Dollar & New Zealand Dollar

Modified: Thursday, 20 June 2013 13:40 BST - Written by Minesh Chaudhari

STORY LINK Exchange Rate Forecasts: Pound Sterling, Euro, US Dollar & New Zealand Dollar

The POUND STERLING enjoyed a fillip when May’s UK Retail Sales numbers were released earlier today. The shop sales figure for May printed at well above analysts’ expectations, however with less than two weeks until Mark Carney takes over at the Bank of England, Sterling’s future remains uncertain – the outlook for the Pound is NEUTRAL.

The EURO has come under selling pressure so far today in spite of a higher than anticipated set of whole of eurozone PMI data earlier today which suggests that the European Central Bank’s options are limited regarding a further tightening of its monetary policy. Price action for the single currency today suggests that it remains firmly tethered to global risk. The euro is expected to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing in the short term and the current GBP EUR exchange rate stands at 1.1702.

The US DOLLAR has staged a major comeback over the past 24hrs. The move has followed comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke who stated last night that, providing the American economy performs as expected, then the ongoing US Quantitative Easing programme will be cut back before the end of the year. The Buck is expected to trade on a POSITIVE footing moving forward and the current GBP USD exchange rate stands at 1.5458.

The NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR has endured a torrid session in the currency markets so far today. The risk-sensitive Kiwi was already under pressure following the US Federal Reserve’s pre-announcement of a tapering of QE when last night’s Chinese HSBC PMI Manufacturing survey was released. The factory output figure came out well below expectations – bad news for New Zealand’s exporters. The current GBP NZD exchange rate stands at 1.9825 and the outlook for the Kiwi is NEGATIVE.

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