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Forecasts: Euro, Pound, Dollar and Canadian Dollar Future Exchange Rate Predictions (EUR GBP USD & CAD)

October 1, 2014 - Written by John Cameron

The session in the currency exchange rate markets brought pronounced price action for the Pound Sterling against several of the other major global currencies, causing analysts to alter their forecast for the UK unit against the euro (currency:EUR), US Dollar (currency:USD) and the Canadian Dollar (currency:CAD).

A quick look at the updated forex rates today:

The Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar exchange rate is trading down -0.16% at 1.85277 GBP/AUD.
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar exchange rate is trading down -0.57% at 1.80704 GBP/CAD.
The Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate is trading down -0.13% at 1.28233 GBP/EUR.
The Pound Sterling to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate is trading up +0.15% at 2.07951 GBP/NZD.
The Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate is trading down -0.19% at 1.61833 GBP/USD.

The EURO had another horror session yesterday following the publication of whole of eurozone inflation data which revealed that the core level of regional price rises had dropped to a year-on-year 0.7%. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has previously promised to do ‘whatever it takes’ to save the euro. His resolve is likely to be tested in the near-term – expect the ECB to go down the all-out Quantitative Easing route, so the outlook for the single currency remains NEGATIVE. The GBP EUR exchange rate stands at 1.2848.

The POUND STERLING (currency:GBP) appeared unfazed by leading credit rating agency Moody’s early-week decision to strip the UK of its AAA sovereign debt rating. A slight upward revision from the Office of National Statistics to its Q2 GDP growth number helped the Pound yesterday; however, nagging fears that Britain may be set for a Brexit (British exit from the European Union), sooner rather than later are likely to anchor the Pound’s progress into the medium term. Analysts forecast that the Pound Sterling will perform on a NEUTRAL footing moving forward.

The US DOLLAR (currency:USD) took a hit during the early part of yesterday’s North American session following the publication of this month’s domestic Consumer Confidence survey which printed at a far lower than anticipated 86.0 versus the previous month’s 93.4. The Buck weakened as a result as investors pushed back their expectations on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate increase. The outlook for the Greenback is now NEUTRAL and the GBP USD exchange rate sits at 1.6123.

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The CANADIAN DOLLAR (currency:CAD) endured a poor afternoon in the markets, sending the GBP CAD exchange rate up to as high as 1.8156. The move against the Loonie was driven by a disappointing showing from July’s Canadian Gross Domestic Product numbers, which printed at an annualised 2.5%, (down from June’s counterpart print of 3.1%). This afternoon’s US manufacturing survey is the next risk event of note for the Canadian tender, which is expected to trade with a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE bias in the short term.
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