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Poor Performance Forecast for British Pound Sterling Exchange Rates GBP

January 19, 2015 - Written by John Cameron

UK Housing Data Encourages



An almost complete dearth of UK data releases during today’s session has seen the Pound Sterling (currency:GBP) endure a period of drift against the other sixteen most actively-traded global currencies.

The only economic statistic of note out of Britain so far today has been the January version of Rightmove’s monthly house price survey.

Housing sector economists has been expecting the figure to show at broadly the same level as December’s counterpart print, so it came as a considerable surprise when it pointed to a pronounced improvement from the previous month’s 7.0% showing to 8.2%.

The news provided a fillip to investors holding Sterling and analysts forecast that there could be extensive price action for Sterling as the week progresses.

Pound Exchange Rates Today:



The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate is +0.09 pct higher with a conversion rate of 1 GBP equals 1.84236 AUD.
The Pound to Canadian Dollar conversion rate is -0.41 pct lower at 1.80509 GBP/CAD.
The Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rate converts +2.19 per cent higher at 1 GBP is 1.32825 CHF.
The Pound to Euro exchange rate is -0.63 pct lower with a conversion rate of 1 GBP equals 1.30126 EUR.
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The Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate converts -0.04 per cent lower at 1 GBP is 1.94240 NZD.
The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is -0.25 pct lower with a conversion rate of 1 GBP equals 1.51031 USD.

British Jobs Figures Awaited



Wednesday’s UK labour market figures have the potential to be market-moving, with insiders expecting them to reveal another drop in the overall level of domestic employment.

The consensus opinion amongst commentators is that the November statistics will point to a drop in the overall level of British joblessness to 5.9%. Anything other than this and the Pound will lose ground.

BoE Minutes Could Hurt Sterling Exchange Rate



Meanwhile, Wednesday morning also sees the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England’s January policy meeting.

The key component of the memos will be the revelation of the voting pattern from the nine-man committee. Two of the committeemen have voted for an increase in Britain’s base rate during recent months; if Wednesday’s minutes reveal that one or both of these hawks have changed their minds, which would appear to be a live possibility given the sharp drop in oil prices since the Autumn, then expect the Pound to lose further support.

December Retail Sales Data to Disappoint?



Thursday sees the publication of December’s UK public sector borrowing figures, and with a pronounced drop from November’s official monthly public sector net borrowing number of £13.4bn factored-in by investors, Sterling could be riding for a fall.

A busy weekly data schedule is rounded off by last month’s retail sales figures. Analysts suggest that the December shop sales numbers may disappoint because of the heavy ‘Black Friday’ discounting by retailers at the end of November. All in all, the prospects for Sterling this week do not appear rosy and the UK unit is forecast to trade on the back foot.
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