Pound Dollar Forecast: Gains Predicted for GBP to USD Exchange Rate

March 2, 2015 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Pound Dollar Forecast: Gains Predicted for GBP to USD Exchange Rate

This afternoon’s session brings a brace of key data releases from the US which analysts forecast will shape the near term fortunes of the Pound Sterling US Dollar exchange rate. The GBP USD exchange rate ended last week at 1.5433, adding fuel to the market speculation that the pair has now performed a key reversal following its brief incursion below the 1.5000 threshold during recent months.

The latest US Personal Consumption figures lead the way at 1330hrs today and analysts expect that the January print will reveal that Americans increased by 1.2% in comparison with January 2014. Such a print would mark a slight decrease from December’s annualised showing of 1.3%, serving to increase the impression that the US Federal Reserve will not be in a position to increase its key interest rate any time soon. This feeling amongst market participants would be likely to increase the selling pressure on the Buck, potentially sending the GBP USD exchange rate up through the 1.5500 threshold.

Another key data release from the US follows 90 minutes later when the results of the latest ISM Manufacturing survey are due for publication. In a similar vein to the Personal Consumption data which precedes it, this closely-monitored gauge of activity in America’s vast manufacturing base is expected to reveal a slight drop-off from the previous month.

Elsewhere, the main data releases on the horizon are the overnight monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Q4 Swiss Gross Domestic Product numbers, penned in for publication early tomorrow morning. Analysts’’ forecasts for the RBA announcement are divided; a slight majority of those polled believe that Australia’s central bank will opt to trim its key lending rate to 2.00%, but others predict that the near-term increase in global commodity prices will see the RBA’s policymakers sit on their hands. Meanwhile, with the Pound Sterling Swiss Franc exchange rate having soared in recent weeks, Switzerland’s unit is badly in need of a boost from its latest domestic growth figures.

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