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British Pound Sterling Exchange Rate Forecast versus EUR USD NOK

June 5, 2015 - Written by John Cameron

The POUND STERLING (currency:GBP) has struggled to assert itself in the global currency market since the latest PMI survey of Britain’s services sector was published during the middle part of this week. However, this morning’s Bank of England / GfK inflation survey hints at a higher pace of UK price rises over the next 12 months. Tuesday morning’s UK trade numbers represent the next risk event of note for Sterling-watchers. In the meantime, the outlook for the UK unit is NEUTRAL.

The slow-rolling Greek debt crisis continues to represent the most significant risk to the EURO (currency:EUR). However, from a macroeconomic perspective, things appear to be improving for the shared currency, with the latest set of regional inflation numbers pointing to a return of inflation. Meanwhile, the euro has suffered a pronounced and generalised weakening this afternoon following the publication of strong jobs figures in the US which sent the EUR USD exchange rate sharply lower. The euro is predicted to trade with a NEGATIVE bias moving forward and the GB EUR exchange rate stands at 1.3730.

The US DOLLAR (currency:USD) made a roaring comeback this afternoon with the release of the latest Non-Farm Payroll data. The official figures surprised to the upside, pointing to a far higher than expected level of job creation in the States last month. The Buck gained as a result, with investors pricing-in a higher percentage chance that the US Federal Reserve will be hiking its key interest rate later this year. The forecast for the Greenback is now NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE and the GBP USD exchange rate stands at 1.5220.

The NORWEGIAN KRONE (currency:NOK) has been outperformed by all of the other sixteen most actively traded global currencies so far today, with GBP NOK climbing by well over 1%. The Krone continues to be weighed down by a resiliently low oil price and by disappointing local data earlier this month. A survey suggesting that Norway’s manufacturing sector is now in contraction appears to make an interest rate cut from the Norges Bank all the more likely later this month and the outlook for the Norwegian unit is now NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE. The GBP NOK exchange rate sits at 12.1045.
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