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'Kiwi' Forex News and Outlook ? Profit Taking Pushes NZD/GBP Higher, NZD/USD, NZD/AUD Fluctuates

June 22, 2015 - Written by John Cameron

GBP/NZD Remains Close to 5-Year Highs



A very quiet week for UK data and Sterling achieving multi-month and multi-year highs against rivals like AUD, NZD, EUR and USD last week saw investors engage in a bit of profit-taking on Monday and the Pound softened accordingly. However, bets that the RBNZ intends to cut interest rates further in the next couple of months kept the GBP/NZD pairing close to five-year highs.

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Forex Forecast for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to GBP, USD, EUR Exchange Rates: RBA Rate Bets Key



The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) exchange rate declined against a number of its currency counterparts last week as bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will follow up this month’s surprise interest rate adjustment with another kept the South Pacific currency under pressure. Dairy price fluctuations and sub-par New Zealand Growth data also limited demand for the commodity-driven currency. New Zealand’s economy had been expected to expand by 0.6% in the first quarter on a quarter-on-quarter basis, but it actually only grew by 0.2%. This resulted in annual first quarter expansion of 2.6% rather than the 3.1% projected.

NZ GDP and Confidence Reports Weigh on NZD/GBP, NZD/EUR, NZD/USD Trading Last Week



New Zealand’s growth data saw market strategist Stan Shamu comment; ‘The GDP number has certainly set the tone for the Kiwi. If conditions don’t improve, then the market will look for another rate cut.’


New Zealand’s Consumer Confidence data was also less-than impressive, with the index falling from -3.2% in June month-on-month and moving from 123.9 to 119.9.

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Industry Expert NZD to GBP, EUR, USD Exchange Rate Insight



While profit taking has helped the New Zealand Dollar edge slightly higher against its peers, the gains proved minimal and short lived. That being said, with Greece due to participate in an emergency summit tonight (and perhaps strike a deal which would bolster risk-appetite), further NZD exchange rate movement may occur. These are some industry expert opinions relating to the New Zealand Dollar exchange rate.

Market Strategist Imre Speizer noted; ‘The markets are thinking we might get something out of this Greek meeting. We’ve had some massive moves (in the Kiwi) this month and I think we’re due a lull.’


Currency expert Raiko Shareef observed; ‘Leveraged investors will become frustrated when Kiwi stops moving to the downside. They will take profit on their positions if it becomes clear that Kiwi is not going to continue to fall at the rate that is has over the past month and a half.’


The New Zealand report with the most potential to drive NZD to EUR, USD, GBP exchange rates this week is the nation’s trade balance figures for May, due out on Thursday. A move to deficit, which is what economists have forecast, would be ‘Kiwi’ negative.
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