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GBP USD Conversion Rate Forecast Hinges on Today?s US Non-Farm Payroll Data

August 6, 2015 - Written by Ben Hughes

GBP/USD At 1.55 before US Non-Farm Payrolls Data



The Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) fell back to the 1.55 level on Thursday as the Bank of England negatively revised its inflation forecasts. The fact that only one member of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for interest rate increases was also seen to weigh on the Pound. Today's US Non-Farm Payrolls report is likely to have a notable impact on 'Cable' in the hours ahead.

Earlier...

US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rate Fluctuates against EUR, GBP after Trade Data



The US Dollar (currency : USD) struggled to assert itself against the other sixteen most actively traded global currencies during late trade yesterday following the publication of a worrying set of American trade data.

The June import / export figures from the States revealed that America’s trade gap had widened from $40.90bn in May to a whopping $43.80bn at the latest count – analysts had forecast that the number would come in at $43.00bn, so the Buck gave up ground against the other majors in the aftermath of the release.

Laura Rosner of BNP Paribas explained following the release that, ‘exports remain far below trend and we have yet to see a decisive rebound following the resolution of the West Coast port strike’.


US Exports Fall for Second Month, GBP/USD Conversion Rate Trends around 1.56



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Drilling down into the raw data, analysts noted that US exports had declined for the second month on the trot; meanwhile, the figures also revealed that the extent of imports into the States had reached their record ever level during June, tipping the scales at $232.4bn. The progressive strengthening of the Greenback against the currencies of America’s primary trading partners over the past year served to increase the extent of this number, but even still it is a huge result and one which points at the inherent imbalance at the heart of the world’s premier economy.

Foreign Exchange Forecast: US Non Farm Payrolls to Drive EUR/USD, GBP/USD



The Pound Sterling US Dollar exchange rate had traded down to as low as 1.5525 GBP USD during early trading but by the middle part of the North American equities session, the pair had bounced back to well above the 1.5600 GBP USD threshold as market participants priced in a lower percentage chance that the US Federal Reserve will be increasing its headline interest rate this year.

Yesterday’s events ramp up the importance of tomorrow’s US Non-farm Payrolls data. Analysts expect another showing above 200,000 – an outcome which would suggest that job generation Stateside continues to progress at speed. Anything below 200,000 for the headline figure and economists will forecast that a trading rate of 1.6000 is possible for GBP USD in the near-term.
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