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FX Update for British Pound Sterling vs EUR and US Dollar Swiss Franc Exchange Rate Forecast

August 19, 2015 - Written by Frank Davies

British Pound Volatility Expected on UK Retail Sales Data



In the hours ahead the GBP to EUR, USD and CHF exchange rates could fluctuate in response to the UK's latest retail sales figures. If consumer spending is shown to have increased by as much, or more, than forecast the Pound is likely to trend higher.

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ALERT: UK CPI Sends Pound Sterling Conversion Rate Trending Higher



A higher than anticipated showing from yesterday morning’s UK inflation numbers for July helped propel the POUND STERLING (currency : GBP) higher against almost all of the other sixteen most actively traded global currencies. The ‘core’ element of the official statistics, which pointed to an above-expectations increase of 1.2% in the price of essential goods over the past twelve months, will be particularly beneficial to Sterling moving forward. The outlook for the UK unit is NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.

Euro Exchange Rate Trending Lower on ECB QE Concerns: NEGATIVE FORECAST



The EURO (currency : EUR) shed support against both the Pound Sterling and the US Dollar during yesterday’s trading session as investors continued to eyeball the European Central Bank’s Quantitative Easing programme with some concern. There was no tier one eurozone data released on the day, but the shared currency continued to be hindered by Monday’s below par whole of euroland Trade Balance numbers. Friday could be seminal for the euro, with the publication of the latest German GfK Consumer Confidence and the whole of euozone Consumer Confidence gauge of sentiment. In the meantime the euro is forecast to trade on a NEGATIVE footing.

The GBP EUR exchange rate stands at 1.4195.

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Foreign Exchange Outlook: US Dollar Conversion Rate Falls after Poor US Housing Data



The US DOLLAR (currency : USD) suffered during late trading yesterday following the publication of a disappointing set of US Buildings Permits and Housing Starts data. This afternoon’s US Consumer Price Index data is certain to be market-moving for the Buck – a year-on-year showing of 0.2%, signalling that America’s economy is moving further away from deflation, is expected. Anything less and the Greenback is forecast to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing for the remainder of the week.

The Pound Sterling US Dollar exchange rate stands at 1.5652 GBP USD.

Swiss Franc Exchange Rate Trending Lower Before Trade Balance Numbers



The SWISS FRANC (currency : CHF) has underperformed the majority of the other major global currencies over the past two weeks as investors continue to baulk at the Swiss National Bank’s sub-zero interest rate policy. As a relatively small economy, tomorrow morning’s Trade Balance data from Switzerland is forecast to be market-moving.; a print of better than the CHF3.51bn recorded in June will be required to prop-up support for the beleaguered Swissie.

The outlook for the Swiss unit is NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE and the GBP CHF exchange rate stands at 1.5279.
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