GBP AUD Pound Sterling Australian Dollar Forecast Hinges on US Jobs Data

October 5, 2015 - Written by Minesh Chaudhari

STORY LINK GBP AUD Pound Sterling Australian Dollar Forecast Hinges on US Jobs Data

Pound Sterling Exchange Rate Forecast: UK Data Could Bolster GBP Trading

For some time now, economists have bemoaned the ‘British disease’ of a lack of productivity as the reason behind the anaemic levels of domestic economic growth which have followed the global financial crisis of 2008/09.

However, some encouraging UK figures, published earlier by the Office of National Statistics, has provided investors holding the Pound Sterling (currency : GBP) with some reason for optimism. Today’s data pointed to a healthy 0.9% increase in the Output Per Hour (OPH) measure favoured by the Bank of England (BoE), during the three months to the end of June. The key statistic, which aggregates the total amount produced by each individual company after costs, is seen as a vital indicator of the ability of the UK economy to expand and for some years now, this OPH figure has been severely behind the curve.

GBP Predictions: Pound Fails to Gain on Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar Exchange Rates<.h2>

The news of an improvement in this key measure did the Pound Sterling no harm on the day – the UK unit recorded decent gains against most of the other sixteen most actively traded global currencies. The exception to this rule was provided by the high-yielding Commodity Dollars, with Sterling shipping support against the Australian Dollar (currency : AUD), New Zealand Dollar (currency : NZD) and Canadian Dollar (currency : CAD).

The High Yielders are in desperate need of a continued improvement in the global economic situation in order to continue their near-term improvement against Sterling. Such an outcome has been placed in jeopardy by a financial ‘vicious cycle’ triggered by a tightening of US economic policy and a continuation of the slowdown in China, according to comments earlier from the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde.

FX Outlook: Chinese, US Data Forecast to Drive Conversion Rate Movement

Last night’s government survey of China’s key manufacturing sector pointed to a continued slowdown, while tomorrow afternoon’s US job creation figures for September are forecast to provide a strong indicator regarding whether the world’s largest economy is strong enough to withstand an interest rate hike before the end of the year. The outlook for the Commodity Dollars remains bleak.

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