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Forecast Currency Market Data Highlights for Week Commencing 9th November

November 9, 2015 - Written by John Cameron

Weak Chinese Trade Data Weighs on AUD, NZD and CAD Exchange Rates



Yesterday’s weak trade data from China has heaped further pressure on the risk-driven currencies and there could be more bad news to come for the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar if tonight’s Chinese economic statistics also disappoint.

Investors have become increasingly wary of headline data sets emerging from China during recent years, with Gross Domestic Product numbers coming in for particular scrutiny.

Last month’s official government data which revealed that the world’s second largest economy is expanding at a year-on-year rate of 6.9% was widely considered by analysts to be an overinflated figure.

Chinese New Yuan Loans Data to Provoke Changes for Commodity Assets



Indeed, Chinese officials suggest that the nation’s President Xi Jingping is so distrusting of the official headline numbers published by his statisticians that he relies on a raft of lower tier data releases to provide a true snapshot of the state of his nation’s economy.

The monthly New Yuan Loans data is one such statistic and October’s edition is due for publication tonight; if the figure suggests that less than the expected volume of 800bn Yuan has been forwarded to Chinese economic participants last month, then expect investors to continue to shift out of the risk-driven Australian (currency: AUD), New Zealand (currency : NZD) and Canadian Dollar (currency : CAD) and into safe-haven assets.

GBP to AUD Exchange Rate Forecast to Strengthen on Australian Labour Market Data



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FX insiders will get a further steer on the likely direction of near-term travel for the Australian Dollar (currency : AUD) later in the week when October’s Aussie labour market numbers are released.

September’s data showed that overall joblessness in Australia had increased to 6.2% and another escalation last month would see the Pound Sterling (currency : GBP) register further gains against the Aussie.

US Advance Retail Sales data for October is the final tier one data set of the week and with an improvement on September’s figure forecast, the US Dollar (currency : USD) may end the weekly session on a high.



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