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Pound Sterling GBP Forecast to Climb vs Australian Dollar (currency:AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (currency:NZD)

November 11, 2015 - Written by John Cameron

UK Unemployment Strikes over 7-Year Low, GBP-EUR Trends Higher



This morning’s UK labour market data proved to be broadly beneficial to the Pound Sterling (currency : GBP). The Pound euro exchange rate had been threatening to drop back down through the 1.4000 GBP EUR threshold during early trade but by the middle part of the European equities session the pair had recovered to close to the 1.4200 GBP EUR level.

Pound Close to Best Rates against Euro Despite Average Earnings Stagnating



However, the official numbers from the UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) were by no means universally positive, with the October Jobless Claims Change element showing at a higher than anticipated level. The Average Weekly Earnings data for September, which is a rolling quarterly number, showed at a marginally lower than expected level, however a surprise dip in the headline overall Unemployment Rate for the three months to the end of September more than compensated for these minor disappointments and the Pound rallied.

Nick Palmer of the Office of National Statistics commented earlier that, ‘these figures continue the recent strengthening trend in the labour market, with a new record high in the employment rate and the unemployment rate still at its lowest level since spring 2008’. The fallout from the data is therefore forecast by analysts to favour the Pound Sterling against the other sixteen most actively traded global currencies into the medium term.


Chinese Data Mixed, AUD, NZD Exchange Rates Volatile Now



Elsewhere, last night’s Asian session brought the publication of a raft of data from China. The official numbers provided further evidence of the shift in the balance of the Chinese economy, with October’s Industrial Production data missing target to the downside, while the latest Retail Sales data pointed to a strong year-on-year increase in shop sales. The figures, which suggested a sharp decline in the increase in output from China’s factories, hurt the export-driven Australian Dollar (currency : AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (currency : NZD) on the day, sending the GBP AUD exchange rate up to as high as 2.1570 and the GBP NZD exchange rate Northwards to as high as 2.3202.
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