Investors Eye UK Shop Sales Data for Pound Sterling GBP Forecast

November 19, 2015 - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Investors Eye UK Shop Sales Data for Pound Sterling GBP Forecast

UK Retail Sales Data to Provoke GBP to EUR Volatility Today

Today’s session brings a busy day of data releases in the global markets.

The UK leads the way with the publication of October’s Retail Sales data.

The British government is banking on domestic consumers to spend their way out of the recent slowdown in the pace of economic growth.

September’s go-ahead showing of 5.9% from the shop sales number triggered a bout of strong support for the Pound Sterling (currency : GBP) in the markets.

Today’s figure is anticipated to be slighter softer, with the consensus amongst analysts being for a print of 3.9%.

Anything above this and the Pound is forecast to record renewed gains against the euro (currency : EUR) and the US Dollar (currency : USD).

ECB Minutes to Inform December Easing Predictions

Meanwhile, on the other side of La Manche, the official account of the most recent European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement is penned in for publication at lunchtime.

Investors will be poring over the text in search of clues regarding the likely outcome of next month’s all-important ECB policy meeting.

Last month’s assertion from the euroland central bank’s President Mario Draghi that his policy board will re-assess its ongoing €60bn per month Quantitative Easing programme at its December meeting have added to the importance of today’s release.

Analysts took Draghi’s words as a sign that his Bank’s monthly €60bn allocation may be upped and / or the current September 2016 finishing date extended.

Any hints of such a potential move in today’s memos are forecast to send the Pound euro exchange rate sharply higher.

US Jobs Data to Provoke US Dollar Changes Today

Elsewhere, this afternoon’s session brings the publication of the weekly US jobs data; the numbers will be particularly closely monitored this time around by market participants looking for a steer on the next US Non-Farm Payrolls data, due for publication on the first Friday of next month.

A strong showing from these number will cause investors to increase their bets on a December Fed rate hike.

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TAGS: American Dollar Forecasts Euro Forecasts Euro Pound Forecasts Pound Sterling Forecasts