Weekly Pound Sterling (GBP) Data Forecast Overshadowed Heavily by Brexit Voting News

June 20, 2016 - Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Weekly Pound Sterling (GBP) Data Forecast Overshadowed Heavily by Brexit Voting News

While the Pound has kept strong in most currency pairings, it has nonetheless been damaged by the fact that polls have put 'Leave' and 'Remain' on a close level.

Due to a significant change in the polls, the 'Remain' campaign has taken the lead and the Pound has risen considerably today.

EU Referendum Developments top Provoke Significant GBP Exchange Rate Volatility

One event dominates the weekly schedule and it’s not a data release; the long-awaited UK European Union Membership referendum takes place on Thursday. The polling stations are open from 0700hrs – 2200hrs, with official exit polls expected within moments of voting ending. Market movement is forecast for the Pound Sterling (currency : GBP) on their release, but market participants may not have to wait this long for volatile price action for the Pound to begin.

Exit polls have proved to be unerringly accurate in UK elections of recent years, with British voters being generally truthful in reporting to canvassers outside polling stations how they have cast their ballots. Reports have emerged that several leading investment banks have commissioned private exit polls, at a cost of around GBP500,000 a piece, in an effort to steal a march on the markets. For this reason, movement is predicted for Sterling ahead of official voting ending.

German ZEW Confidence Survey to Provoke Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Movement

On the data front, tomorrow morning’s German ZEW Confidence Survey could prove to be market-moving for the euro (currency : EUR). A result of below last month’s 6.4 would pile the pressure on the single currency, potentially sending the Pound Sterling euro exchange rate Northwards to the 1.3000 GBP EUR threshold before the UK EU referendum even takes place.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, Friday afternoon brings the publication of the latest edition of the closely-monitored US Durable Goods Orders data. The key statistic gauges the level of expected purchases of products expected to last at least three years by American companies and private individuals. It is therefore considered to provide hard evidence of levels of optimism amongst US economic participants.

The April version of the figure came in at an encouraging 3.4%, but expectations are lower this time around, with the consensus amongst analysts being for a relatively lowly result of -0.8%. A print of better than this level could send the Pound Sterling US Dollar exchange rate down into the 1.3000s GBP EUR for the first time in months, depending on how the Brexit vote of the previous day has gone.

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TAGS: Euro Forecasts Pound Euro Forecasts Pound Sterling Forecasts