February 10, 2017 - Written by Toni Johnson
STORY LINK UK Production Figures Exceed Forecasts, GBP INR Exchange Rate Accelerates
GBP INR Exchange Rate Climbs on News of Rising UK Manufacturing Production Activity
The morning’s UK ecostats have proven beneficial to GBP INR, with rising manufacturing production figures in December boosting support for Sterling.
Other data has seen annual industrial production more than double from 2.2% to 4.3%, while the December trade balance has seen a deficit reduction from -3.56bn to -3.30bn.
Less supportive has been the monthly industrial production and annual construction output stats, both of which fell at the end of 2016.
GBP INR Rate Predicted to Flop if Major GDP Downgrade Comes Today
The last UK economic data of the week will come this afternoon, when the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) issues its GDP estimate for the three months to the end of January.
The NIESR previously estimated 0.5%; given that UK PMIs dropped in January, this figure could be revised downwards, which would exacerbate concerns that the impact of Brexit could still prove negative for the UK economy.
Looking forward to the week to come, January’s UK base and core inflation figures are expected on Tuesday, which could provide a clearer picture of how the UK is faring post-Brexit.
INR Drops against GBP as RBI Actions Come Under Scrutiny
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has had a restraining impact on the Indian Rupee today, due to its decisions contradicting consensus predictions ever since long-standing Governor Raghuram Rajan was replaced by Urjit Patel in September 2016.
Economists have questioned Patel’s lack of policy action, especially given that the nation is still reeling from last year’s cash crisis brought about by demonetisation.
If Patel continues to withhold RBI support, the Rupee is likely to devalue further due to the negative implications for future of Indian economic stability.
INR Forecast to Fall if Industrial Production Slows Today
The last major Indian economic data of the week is due shortly, consisting of annual industrial and manufacturing production figures for December.
While no forecasts have been made for the outcomes, both production figures previously saw growth in excess of 5.4%.
Looking ahead to next week, Indian inflation rate figures for January are due at noon on Monday; the prior rate was 3.41%.
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