Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD

Published: Wednesday, 30 March 2011 16:56 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD

POUND STERLING

The Pound held its ground on the day following some slightly better-than-expected Retail Sales figures from the CBI. With little other data of note until the release of tonight’s GFK Consumer Confidence Survey, the Pound has been open to range trading. It remains perilously close to a 5 month low against the Euro. A close below this level would be exceedingly bearish for Sterling. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6042

This afternoon’s US Employment Numbers provided some encouragement for the US economy, with a significant increase in new jobs for March. This has raised hopes for a positive Non-Farms Payroll number on Friday. As previously, positive economic data in the States has a tendency to weaken the Dollar, so caution is advisable for investors holding Dollar-denominated assets. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1382

The whole of Eurozone Business Climate Indicator and Consumer Confidence Surveys both came out in-line with expectations earlier today. European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi struck a negative note when he aired concerns about possible contagion to other Euro-area countries from debt-troubled nations including Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Having traded to top-of the-range levels against Sterling and the Greenback, it is possible that the Euro has done all the strengthening that it is going to do for the time being. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5549


The Aussies near-term rally has taken it to its highest level against the US Dollar since it was floated against the Greenback in 1982. For technical reasons, there is now likely to be strong resistance stopping the Aussie rally which followed the return of normal trading conditions following the Japanese earthquake. Australian Private Sector Credit figures tonight provide the next risk event which could trigger a reversal. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR – The Pound New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (GBP/NZD) is 2.1055

The Kiwi Dollar continues to move back towards the trading range which it was occupying prior to the Christchurch earthquake, Arab uprising and Japanese Tsunami. Tonight’s NBNZ Business Confidence Survey will provide further direction for the NZD and could see GBP/NZD break back down through 2.1000 for the first time since 10th February. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


CANADIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is 1.5583

The CAD held steady against the majors during today’s session, with the commodity-driven currencies performed well as a block. The Canadian Dollar did particularly well against the Yen, with that pair seeing considerable upward movement, causing the CAD to make broad gains. Rumours about domestic M&A activity caused further support for the Canadian currency. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVIVE.

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