Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NZD, CHF

9 Jun 2011 at 3 PM - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NZD, CHF

POUND STERLING

Today started positively for the Pound with the release of UK trade figures which slightly bettered expectations. The Bank of England surprised no-one when they kept interest rates at their historical low of 0.50% and kept their current asset purchase scheme at £200bn. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6369

With little US data of note due for release today, Dollar levels have been determined by ebbs and flows in global risk sentiment. With many institutional investors being spooked by poor Australian labour market figures and last night’s significantly worse-than-anticipated Japanese GDP growth figures, the Greenback has picked up some support. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1287

The European Central Bank announced that it was keeping interest rates on hold at 1.25% earlier today, as had been expected. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet’s press conference, which followed the announcement, sent out mixed messages to the market; on the one hand it was Euro-positive, as Trichet called for ‘strong vigilance’ on Eurozone price increases and stated that the ECB may raise rates next month. However, Trichet went on to state that a strong US Dollar was important for the global recovery. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5438

The Australian Dollar has lost ground against almost all of the other majors on the day, following last night’s poor Australian labour market figures. Weak Japanese GDP growth data, also released during last night’s Asian session has placed further selling pressure on the Aussie, given Japan’s role as one of Australia’s key export markets. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR – The Pound New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (GBP/NZD) is 1.9813

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced that it is keeping interest rates at 2.50% last night, but the upbeat tone of RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard’s accompanying statement surprised the markets. Bollard stated that the RBNZ expects the re-building of Christchurch following March’s earthquake to add 2% to New Zealand’s GDP growth figures next year. The Kiwi has gained further support as investors shifted their funds out of the Australian Dollar following last night’s poor Aussie labour market data. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


SWISS FRANC – The Pound Swiss Franc exchange rate (GBP/CHF) is 1.3785

The Franc lost ground on the session. With no Swiss data released on the day, this move has been driven by comments from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, who heavily hinted during his press conference this afternoon, that Eurozone interest rates would be upped in July. Germany’s apparent acceptance of the need for a second Greek bail-out has also hit the Franc as institutional investors shift their funds back into Euro-denominated assets. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


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