Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CHF

4 Jul 2011 at 3 PM - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CHF

POUND STERLING

The Pound has struggled for direction on the day, with the PMI Construction survey for June coming in at exactly the expected level. Tomorrow morning’s PMI Services survey will be closely watched, as service sector numbers have proved market-moving in recent months due to the UK’s high dependency on this key area. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6060

A rare blank day for US data releases and a moderate performance for global equities markets has seen the Greenback trade within well-defined ranges against the Pound and the Euro on the day. There is little in the way of key US economic data releases until Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll figure, leaving the Dollar susceptible to further drift. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1068

Eurozone PMI figures for May, released at the start of today’s European session, came out slightly worse than analysts had anticipated, but the Sentix Investor Confidence survey more than compensated, showing a marked improvement in confidence amongst market participants. However, leading ratings agency S&P cast a dark pall over the Eurozone economy this afternoon when they announced that current plans for re-structuring Greece’s debts would constitute a de facto default. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL .


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.4984

The start of this week’s session has been marred by weak data releases in Australia, with May’s Retail Sales figure showing an unexpected monthly contraction and Building Approvals data, a leading indicator for Australia’s key construction sector, also severely disappointing. Given the soft nature of recent Australian data, it seems highly unlikely that the RBA will opt to tighten domestic monetary policy later this week. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


SWISS FRANC – The Pound Swiss Franc exchange rate (GBP/CHF) is 1.3630

Swiss Retail Sales figures, released this morning, showed an unexpected contraction in Swiss shop sales in May, following strong consumer spending in April. This data added to the downward pressure on the Franc which followed Greece’s ‘yes’ vote to the proposed austerity package last week. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


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