Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, ZAR

Published: Thursday, 14 July 2011 12:52 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, ZAR

POUND STERLING

With no UK data releases pencilled-in until next week, Sterling has traded no more than steadily on the day. Continuing concerns about the unresolved debt crises in the US and the Eurozone suppressing global risk appetite, the FTSE 100 has suffered significant losses, causing further downward pressure on the Pound. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6121

The Dollar suffered sustained selling pressure overnight, due to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments yesterday which suggested that the Federal Reserve would consider a new tranche of quantitative easing if US economic data warranted it. The Downward pressure on the Greenback was increased when leading ratings agency Moody’s announced that it was reviewing the US’s AAA debt rating due to concerns over Congress’s continuing failure to reach agreement on raising the US’s debt ceiling. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1354

This morning’s annualised whole-of-Eurozone CPI inflation data came out slightly higher than expectations, but the Eurozone debt crisis once again stole the headlines, as Italy successfully sold its latest tranche of government bonds at auction. However, the Italian central bank had to pay record yields on the 15 year treasury bills, providing more evidence that all is not well with European sovereign debts. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.4987


The Australian Dollar has suffered intermittent weakness over the last twenty-four hours due to the volatility of global risk appetite. With market participants reacting rapidly to breaking news regarding Greek, Italian and Spanish bond yields as well as fears over the effect that a downgrading of US debt would have on the global recovery, further downside is possible over coming sessions for the Aussie. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


SOUTH AFRICAN RAND – The Pound South African Rand exchange rate (GBP/ZAR) is 11.0655

The Rand has come under sustained selling pressure on the day, which has seen the GBP ZAR rate trade up by over 1% by the middle of the European session. This Rand downside was caused by an easing of global risk appetite due to fears over US and Eurozone sovereign debts and was accentuated by threats of strike action from South African energy, steel and engineering workers which could cause a slow-down in South African economic growth. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


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