Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, AED

5 Aug 2011 at 2 PM - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, AED

POUND STERLING

This morning’s UK Producer Price Index figure showed that factory gate prices are rising at a slightly higher rate than had anticipated. By rights, this should have caused support for the Pound as investors upwardly revise their projections for UK interest rates. However, the Pound failed to make any headway against the other majors, suggesting market participants’ believe that there is no chance of a tightening of Monetary policy by the BoE any time soon. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6319

July’s Non-Farm Payroll figure, released this afternoon, showed that more jobs had been created in the US economy than had been expected. This is the first encouraging piece of economic data released in a major economy for some time, causing Dollar weakness which suggests that the recent collapse in global appetite for risk may be nearing a halt. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1507

The Euro has stemmed its recent losses today, moving forward against the USD and trading away from its low of the day against the pound. It appears that market participants feel that all of the bad news regarding the Euro is out for the time being, however with concerns growing over Italy and Spain, the sovereign debt situation looks likely to rumble on. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5534

The Aussie has lost further ground in the last twenty four hours as global appetite for risk continues to leak from the market. With Tokyo and Hong Kong’s share indices losing roughly 4% of their value during last night’s session, the Aussie was badly in need of a positive US Non-Farm Payroll figure, which it got. However, this may not be enough to prevent further losses with the Reserve Bank of Australia slashing its domestic growth forecast overnight. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


ARAB EMIRATES DIRHAM – The Pound Dirham exchange rate (GBP/AED) is 5.9920

The Dirham remains directly pegged to the US Dollar, so any relative strength, or weakness, in the USD is directly mirrored in Dirham movements. The Dollar has strengthened across the board over the last three sessions, with investors expressing their relief that the raising of the US’s debt ceiling was passed into law on Tuesday and once again placing their funds into the safe haven of the US T-Bill as stock markets collapsed. However, this afternoon’s positive US employment figure could stop this forward move for the Dollar/Dirham. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


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