Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CHF

Published: Thursday, 15 September 2011 13:43 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CHF

POUND STERLING

The Pound has gained ground against most of the other majors so far today, following better-than-anticipated UK Retail Sales figures for August, released earlier today. Even though the data outstripped expectations, it still showed that British shop sales are contracting on an annualised basis. Investors holding Sterling-denominated assets are thankful for small mercies at the moment. NEAR -TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.5811

This afternoon’s US CPI inflation data printed at slightly higher than analysts had expected. However, with investors’ expectations of a near-term tightening of US monetary policy as low as they have ever been, the higher-than-expected price rise data is unlikely to affect levels on Dollar pairs. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1459

EU Commissioner Joaquin Almunia made comments earlier today stating that measures to assist Greece in avoiding a default will be adopted within the next few days, helping the Euro consolidate on the day. However, market rumours that leading ratings agency Moody’s are considering a debt downgrade for Italy could rapidly alter sentiment towards Europe’s single currency. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5405


The Australian Dollar has continued to leak support during the past 24 hours as investors scale back their exposure to risk following yesterday afternoon’s highly disappointing US Retail Sales data. However, with global stock markets making steady gains today, the Aussie could be in for another bout of support in the short term. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


SWISS FRANC – The Pound Swiss Franc exchange rate (GBP/CHF) is 1.3809

The Swiss National Bank decided to maintain its LIBOR lending rate at 0.00% earlier today, as expected. In an accompanying statement, the SNB stated that it expected Swiss economic activity to grind to a halt in the second half of 2011. The Franc badly needs the SNB’s policy of keeping a lower limit of 1.2000 on the EUR/CHF exchange rate to boost Swiss exporters in order to gain some support in the currency markets. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEGATIVE.


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