Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, TRY

Published: Tuesday, 20 September 2011 16:04 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, TRY

POUND STERLING

Investors holding Sterling-denominated assets will be nervously eyeing tomorrow morning’s release of the minutes of the most recent Bank of England monetary policy meeting. The Pound has lacked direction on the day ahead of the release, but if the minutes reveal that the nine-man committee discussed an extension to the £200bn currently allocated to the Bank’s Quantitative Easing scheme, then the Pound could come under renewed selling pressure. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.5726

UK, European and US stock indices have bucked the recent trend to register gains on the day, suggesting that global investors are beginning to regain their appetite for risk. However, the US Dollar has remained strong against the other majors, suggesting that market participants are not yet fully confident of the state of the world economy, fearing that there be more bad news from Greece and possibly Italy and Spain before the week is out. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1467

Germany’s ZEW survey of economic sentiment came out slightly better than had been anticipated when it was released earlier today. However, the survey revealed that a dominant mood of gloom is still prevalent in the Eurozone’s leading economy. This morning’s German Producer Price Index number came in lower than expected, however the Euro has managed to hold its own on the day against the Pound and the Dollar in the absence of any new revelations from Greece. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5260


The Australian Dollar looks like it has begun a comeback against the other majors on the day following its weak performance from the last two weeks. The move has been driven by an improvement for global stocks and by the tone of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s most recent policy meeting, which were released overnight. The minutes were less dovish than had been expected, with the Bank’s Governor observing that recent projections that it would be many months before the next Australian interest rate rise, were misleading. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL POSITIVE.


NEW TURKISH LIRA – The Pound New Turkish Lira exchange rate (GBP/TRY) is 2.8028

The Lira has performed strongly on the day, with the GBP TRY rate dropping by over 1.5% by the middle part of today’s European session. The move came after leading ratings agency S&P raised its local currency sovereign rating on the Lira from BBB-/A-3 to BB+/B. The Turkish currency has also benefitted from events in Libya, where it appears fighting is drawing to a close. The Lira had previously come under selling pressure in its role as a hedge for the untradeable North African currencies. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


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