Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NZD

Published: Thursday, 3 November 2011 15:23 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NZD

POUND STERLING

This morning’s UK PMI Services survey disappointed, providing bad news for the UK economy, which is largely dependent on a buoyant services sector. The Pound has performed well on the day in spite of this, as concerns remain about other major currencies. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6001

Support for the Greenback has eased somewhat during today's session, as market participants anticipate another healthy Non-Farm Payroll figure tomorrow. Stock markets are performing steadily on the day, but the political situation in Greece could alter this at any given stage, causing pronounced upside for the Dollar. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1614

ECB policy-makers caught market participants on the back foot earlier today by cutting the Eurozone’s key lending rate from 1.50% to 1.25%. The move has weakened Europe’s single currency somewhat, but not by as much as some analysts had suggested it might. The Euro’s relative strength for the remainder of the week is likely to be determined by the Greek vote of confidence in Prime Minister Papandreou and the effect that this will have on the likelihood of a referendum on the Euro in Greece. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5445


Last night’s Australian Retail Sales data came in as expected, having a neutral effect on the Aussie. Today’s improved performance for global equities has caused a mini-recovery for the Australian Dollar, however tomorrow’s US Non-Farm Payrolls figure looms large. Two positive monthly NFP figures in a row might be too much to ask. If proves to be the case, then the Aussie would be certain to come under renewed selling pressure. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR – The Pound New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (GBP/NZD) is 2.0270

Support for the Kiwi has once again eased on the day. This is partly as a reaction to comments last night be the US Federal Reserve’s policy makers that there are ‘significant downside risks’ for the world’s economy. This would hit New Zealand’s economy, which is dependent on the export of commodities, particularly hard. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEGATIVE.


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