Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, AED

Published: Tuesday, 15 November 2011 14:49 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, AED

POUND STERLING

This morning’s UK CPI inflation figure showed an annualised dip in the government’s headline rate of inflation last month. This gives the Bank of England further scope to loosen British monetary policy – not good news for investors holding Sterling-denominated assets. The Pound has so far avoided any pronounced downside following the announcement. NEAR -TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.5866

This afternoon’s US Advance Retail Sales numbers for October beat analysts’ expectations, although they showed at a considerably lower number than September’s counterpart release. With global stocks performing meekly, it seems unlikely that this relatively decent American shop sales figure will be enough to arrest the greenback’s recent progress. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1694

Today’s whole of Eurozone GDP figures showed that European economic activity grew by a minimal amount in quarter 3. With widespread austerity measures being enforced in various European states including Greece and Italy, future growth prospects for mainland Europe are a concern. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5569


The Australian Dollar once again tested higher during this morning’s European session as the market reacted to anaemic Eurozone growth numbers. This afternoon’s better-than-anticipated American shop sales numbers caused a pull-back on the GBP AUD rate, however the Aussie susceptible to downward moves in global equities markets. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


ARAB EMIRATES DIRHAM – The Pound Dirham exchange rate (GBP/AED) is 5.8285

The Dirham remains directly pegged to the US Dollar, so any relative strength, or weakness, in the USD is directly mirrored in Dirham movements. The Dirham has moved forward over the past two weeks, in step with the USD, as market participants sought out a safe haven over fears of a Eurozone debt meltdown. Further upside for the Dirham looks likely, as Europe’s problems are a long way from being solved. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


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