Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast - GBP to AUD Outlook Depends Upon Jobs Data

September 9, 2014 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast - GBP to AUD Outlook Depends Upon Jobs Data

Foreign Exchange analysts forecast that the prospects for the Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP AUD) hinge on Thursday’s Aussie employment data.

Meanwhile, predictions for the Pound Sterling depend on the outcome of next week’s Scottish referendum.

The Pound Sterling’s ship steadied during today’s session after yesterday’s sustained losses. The most recent poll on the Scottish Independence referendum showed that the vote remains broadly spilt, but that a large percentage of voters remain undecided and following a mobilization of Westminster politicians across the boarder, many analysts feel that the ‘undecideds’ may now come out in favour of the perceived ‘safer option’.

On the data front, it was a fairly moderate day for the Pound, with July’s UK Trade Balance data printing at -£10.2bn versus an anticipated -£2.3bn. A marginally better than expected July Industrial Production figure helped the Pound somewhat, as did this afternoon’s quarterly rolling UK Gross Domestic Product Estimate from NIESR which pointed to an expansion of 0.6% in the domestic economy. The Pound euro exchange rate climbed to as high as 1.2526 GBP EUR in the wake of these releases, before suffering renewed downside during late trading in the European equities session.

The Pound did register strong gains on the day against one of the major global currencies – the Australian Dollar (currency:AUD). The GBP AUD exchange rate slumped to as low as 1.7331 during early trading this morning before tracking higher to break back above the 1.7500 threshold once more. The shift out of Aussie-denominated assets was risk-driven, with global share markets shedding value thanks to the announcement from the European Union’s member states that they had officially ratified fresh sanctions against Moscow. With Winter fast approaching in Eastern Europe and with many political commentators openly doubting the veracity of Moscow’s claims that it wants peace in Ukraine, the regional dispute continues to represent a real threat to the global economic recovery.

Looking ahead, Thursday morning’s Australian labour market data could prove to be market-moving for the Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate. A showing of below the anticipated overall unemployment figure of 6.3% would send the GBP AUD exchange rate Southwards towards the 1.7000 threshold. However, a disappointing job creation result would cause the pair to retrace towards the 1.8000 level once more.

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