CTFC Watch: Pound to Euro Forex Exchange Rate Forecast 2015

February 10, 2015 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK CTFC Watch: Pound to Euro Forex Exchange Rate Forecast 2015

Currency News UK Presents Our Pound to Euro Forecast on Exchange Rate Markets

The latest Commodity Future Trading Commission (CTFC) data, published last Friday, made for interesting reading for currency market participants. The figures reveal the number of net ‘long’ and ‘short’ positions held by speculators on the world’s leading currencies and many currency traders follow them in an effort to forecast future price action.

Latest Pound Exchange Rates (10/02/2015)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate converts +0.34 per cent higher at 1 GBP is 1.34806 EUR.
The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is +0.12 pct higher with a conversion rate of 1 GBP equals 1.52332 USD.

Greece Situation PressurisesPound euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate

Perhaps not surprisingly, the US Dollar (currency:USD) remained the favoured tender of traders and, equally predictably, the euro (currency:EUR) remained the dog of the pack. Indeed, sentiment against the single currency softened further during the week ending 3rd February.

Speculators had been net short the euro to the tune of 196,309 contracts – significantly up from the previous week’s showing of -184,745.

This represented the highest level of anti-single currency sentiment in the market since the middle part of 2012; the shift out of euro-denominated assets was triggered by duel concerns regarding a potential Greek eurozone exit and the looming €1.14 trillion Quantitative Easing programme from the European Central Bank.

The CTFC figures are, by their very nature, historical in nature, and the week since the final day which they took into account has seen sentiment against the single currency deteriorate. Sunday’s incendiary comments from Greece’s new Prime Minister which saw him promise to flaunt the conditions of the Hellenic state’s bailout terms and state that his nation will not be seeking any further bailout funding from the ECB / EU / IMF ‘Troika’ looks to have ensured a potentially messy Grexit from the euroland.

Yen and Swiss Franc Exchange Rate Sentiment Improves

Meanwhile, the CTFC data showed that sentiment towards the Japanese Yen (currency:JPY) had improved at the latest count.

Not coincidentally, traders’ attitudes towards the Swiss Franc (currency:CHF) also improved during the week in question.

The two ultra-low yielders have re-established themselves as safe haven currencies following a recent wobble and there could be further gains to come for the pair during coming months if the eurozone does indeed fall apart.

Pound Sterling, the Currency of Choice?

The Pound Sterling (currency:GBP) also enjoyed a fresh bout of support according to the numbers.

The Pound is increasingly seen as a relatively attractive port to shelter in during the expected storm.

UK interest rates are at 0.5% and are likely to remain at this record low level for at least the next year.

Analysts forecast that the UK unit may hoover up support during coming weeks if Greece’s likely Eurozone exit does indeed trigger a rapid wholesale flow of capital out of mainland Europe.

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