Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) Exchange Rate Steadies as Australian Retail Sales ‘Bleak’

July 4, 2019 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) Exchange Rate Steadies as Australian Retail Sales ‘Bleak’

GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Flat as ‘Aussie’ Traders Await Construction Performance Figures

The Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate steadied this morning and is currently trading around AU%1.792 on the interbank market.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) stabilised against the Pound (GBP) following the Australian retail sales figures for May.

These improved from -0.1% to 0.1%, however they missed the forecast increase of 0.2%.

Matthew Hassan, an Analyst at Westpac, commented:

‘Overall the May update is bleak but not bleaker than expected. Retail sales are treading water in nominal terms rather than contracting… We suspect retail price inflation has slowed significantly from the food price driven gains over the last two quarters.’

‘Aussie’ traders, however, will be awaiting the AiG performance of construction index figures for June, which will be published alter this evening.

Any signs of improvement would likely see the AUD/GBP exchange rate edge higher.

Pound (GBP) Rangebound as UK Services Heighten Economic Woes

The Pound eased following yesterday’s releases of the UK Markit Services PMI figures for June.

Narrowly avoiding contraction territory, these fell from 51.0 to 50.2.

Chris Williamson, a Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, was downbeat, saying:

‘The worsening picture will put further pressure on the Bank of England to add stimulus. For policymakers to not loosen policy with the all sector PMI at its current level would be unprecedented in the survey’s two-decade history.’

GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Holds Steady as UK Recession Fears Return

Sterling held steady against the ‘Aussie’ despite rising UK economic recession fears.

Steve Barclay, the Brexit Secretary, further heightened fears today, for when asked whether he could rule out a recession in the event of a no-deal Brexit, he replied:

‘Well, no. As a former Treasury minister no one can ever rule out what could happen in the future.’

There are no economic data releases due out today, with Pound traders instead focusing on political developments surrounding Brexit and the Tory leadership race.

Boris Johnson, the current leadership favourite, has come under increasing pressure from the Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, who said that MPs will ‘do everything to stand in his way’ should he push forward with either a bad deal or a no-deal Brexit.

GBP/AUD Outlook: ‘Aussie’ Could Rise on US-China Trade Deal Hopes

Sterling traders will be looking ahead to tomorrow’s publication of the UK Halifax house prices figures for June.

Any signs of easing could further weigh on Sterling, heightening concerns over the UK’s economic growth.

US-China trade talks will be in the spotlight for ‘Aussie’ traders, with the currency being particularly sensitive to rising tensions between the two superpowers.

Should the US and China find any means of compromise over trade, this would prove beneficial for the risk-correlated AUD/GBP exchange rate.

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TAGS: Australian Dollar Forecasts Pound Australian Dollar Forecasts Pound Sterling Forecasts