Exchange Rate Outlook Forecast for Major Currencies : GBP USD EUR AUD NZD CAD

March 16, 2011 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Exchange Rate Outlook Forecast for Major Currencies : GBP USD EUR AUD NZD CAD

POUND STERLING

This morning’s labour market figures showed that UK unemployment is at its highest level since 1984. However, UK unemployment claims fell by over 10,000 in February, offering some hope. A report released by the OECD this afternoon predicted that the UK economic recovery will be ‘subdued’ for the next two years. NEAR-TREM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR - The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6014

Crude oil prices are up by over 2% during today’s session, following the use of tanks by government forces in Bahrain to quell peaceful protests. Disappointing housing sector data released in the US this afternoon is likely to further weigh down the Dollar. The Greenback may lose further ground in upcoming sessions as panic recedes following the Japanese earthquake. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO - The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1498

Portugal’s national debt was downgraded by two notches by leading Ratings Agencies Moody’s earlier today. This move had less of a negative effect on the Euro than previous downgrading of other nations’ sovereign debts, following last weekend’s agreement by Eurozone leaders to beef up the European Financial Stability Facility. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.6266

The Aussie has lost ground against the majority of the majors today, but not as much as during the first two sessions of this week when panic reigned in the markets. As panic dissipates and risk sentiment improves over coming sessions, the Australian Dollar is likely to re-trace. Last night’s Australian building sector numbers for quarter 4 disappointed analysts, but in the absence of any other Australian tier one data for the remainder of the week, risk sentiment will determine the strength of the Aussie. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR - The Pound New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (GBP/NZD) is 2.1940

The Kiwi has held up well in the markets today, making gains against many of the majors, including a small rise against the Pound. The NZD would benefit from a resolution to the nuclear crisis in Japan, so it was bad news for the Kiwi this afternoon when US authorities stated that they believed that a ‘partial meltdown’ had occurred at the stricken Fukushima plant. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


CANADIAN DOLLAR - The Pound Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is 1.5894

A rise in the barrel of crude during today’s session should provide some support for the CAD, which has lost ground across the board since the Japanese earthquake. This afternoon’s monthly Canadian Manufacturing Shipments figure for January came out much better than expected and a CPI inflation figure above the expected 2.3% level on Friday could see the CAD re-establish an uptrend against other majors. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – POSITIVE.

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TAGS: American Dollar Forecasts Australian Dollar Forecasts Canadian Dolla Forecasts