Foreign Currency Predictions : GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD

March 31, 2011 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Currency Predictions : GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD

POUND STERLING

This morning’s Nationwide House Price Survey for March showed an unexpected monthly rise, providing Sterling with a short-term fillip. However the Pound lost ground later in the session when MPC member David Miles commented that spreads between the UK Central Bank lending rate and mortgage rates were limiting the MPC’s options regarding a future tightening of monetary policy. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6024

The Dollar has suffered a day of drift on the markets ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls release. Today’s release of the weekly initial jobless claims numbers for the week ending 26th March provided some encouragement ahead of tomorrow’s figure. If this number is replicated tomorrow, then the Greenback may come under further selling pressure due to an improvement in risk appetite. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1301

The results of the Stress Test on four leading Irish Banks are expected to be released in the next few hours. The results are expected to show that the banks have a funding gap of €30bn, which will need to be filled. This may lead the new Irish government to approach the IMF and ECB for further emergency funding, leading to further questions being asked about the health of the Eurozone Retail Banking sector as a whole, with Spanish banks providing particular cause for concern. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5496

A static day for share markets has seen little movement for the Aussie. Tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls figure in the US is this next key risk event and a better-than-anticipated number could take the Australian Dollar higher. Last night’s disappointing Building Approvals figure for February disappointed analysts, causing a slow-down in the Aussie’s recent uptrend. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR – The Pound New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (GBP/NZD) is 2.0990

The New Zealand Business Confidence Survey for March dipped back below zero following last month’s positive figure. This caused some downward pressure on the Kiwi, following its strong performance of recent sessions. However, this retracement proved short-lived as the Kiwi Dollar pushed forward following the New York open. A lack of tier one data releases in New Zealand for the remainder of the week leaves the kiwi open to range trading. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


CANADIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is 1.5576

The Canadian Dollar benefitted from the release of domestic growth figures released at the start of today’s North American session which showed that Canadian economic activity is expanding at an annualised 3.3%. Wholesale oil prices remain close to the top of their recent range, providing further support for the CAD. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVIVE.

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