Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CHF, HKD

May 27, 2011 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CHF, HKD

POUND STERLING

UK data releases over the last 24 hours have been of a generally positive tone, with last night’s GfK Consumer Confidence survey showed the largest monthly increase for over eighteen years and this morning’s Nationwide House Price survey also bettered expectations. However, Sterling has failed to break higher against most of the majors as speculators take profit following recent gains. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6469

The Greenback has continued to weaken during today’s session, with the EUR USD rate climbing to touch off 1.43. A slew of US data this afternoon came in almost exactly in line with expectations, the one exception was US Home Sale datafor April, which showed a significant drop-off from March’s figure. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1541

Jean-Claude Juncker, Chairman of the Eurogroup, warned earlier today that the IMF may withhold future bail-out payments to Greece if the troubled Hellenic state does not improve its fiscal position. Meanwhile, Greece’s Prime Minister has met with opposition party leaders in an attempt to gain support for further cuts. Failure to reach an agreement might be disastrous for the Euro. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5402

Global stock markets have enjoyed moderate gains on the day, signalling an easing of fears of an imminent Eurozone sovereign debt meltdown. This has benefitted the Aussie, in the absence of any Australian data releases in the last twenty four hours. Next Wednesday’s Australian Q1 GDP figure will determine investors’ rate expectations over coming months. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


SWISS FRANC – The Pound Swiss Franc exchange rate (GBP/CHF) is 1.4035

The Franc has enjoyed gains across the board in the last twenty-four hours as the IMF took the unusual step of calling for Switzerland’s central bank to raise interest rates. This caused the GBP CHF exchange rate to drop by over 1% on the day, however the SNB is by no means certain to take heed of the IMF’s words as Swiss policy-makers fear for domestic exporters if the Franc strengthens further. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


HONG KONG DOLLAR – The Pound Hong Kong Dollar exchange rate (GBP/HKD) is 12.8235

The HKD continues to trade within a defined range of HKD7.75-7.85 against the USD, so broad moves for the Greenback are reflected in the Hong Kong Dollar’s relative rates. This linkage has seen the HKD come under significant downside in the last four trading days as the USD experienced significant selling pressure due to soft economic data and a pick up in global appetite for risk. It is possible that the GBP HKD rate will drop towards the 12.50 level again if fears increase regarding an impending Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


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