Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CAD, CHF

June 6, 2011 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CAD, CHF

POUND STERLING

Today saw a very light day for UK data releases, with the Lloyds Employment Confidence survey for May being the only figure of note. The survey showed that employees remain on balance negative about their future job prospects, but less so than they were in April. The next key risk even for Sterling comes on Thursday with the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6376

The Dollar has made moderate gains against both the Pound and the Euro during today’s session as appetite for risk ebbs across global markets. As the US’s current tranche of Quantitative Easing comes to an end, analysts’ expectations of a third tranche are increasing based on recent weak economic releases in the States. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1215

The Eurozone’s senior partner, Germany, flexed its muscles earlier today when Steffen Seibert, an official German Government Spokesman, stated that Germany’s contribution to a second Greek bail-out, “must be decided by German authorities," and not by the Eurogroup. This morning’s Eurozone Producer Price Index figure slightly bettered expectations, providing the ECB with a timely reminder that European price rises are far from being under control. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5257

The Australian Dollar has been the best-performing of the major currencies since the market re-opened for the week at the start of last night’s Asian session. Analysts have suggested that, against expectations, the Aussie has benefitted from Friday’s poor US Non-Farm Payrolls figure as it served to suppress market expectations for US interest rate rises, thus re-enforcing Australia’s relative yield advantage. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


CANADIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is 1.6025

Canadian Building Sector data released at the start of today’s North American session severely disappointed analysts when the Canadian monthly Building Permits figure for April showed its sharpest decline for over five years. Last week’s soft Labour Market numbers and Manufacturing sector data in Canada’s primary trade partner, the US, may cause the CAD to come under selling pressure over coming sessions. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEAGTIVE.


SWISS FRANC – The Pound Swiss Franc exchange rate (GBP/CHF) is 1.3704

The Franc has hit strong resistance against the Pound, the Euro and the US Dollar following its recent bull-run. With the US Dollar gaining some support on the day as appetite for risk dips following weak global data releases at the end of last week, the Franc will remain susceptible to profit-taking from speculators for the remainder of the week. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


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