Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CHF, AED

June 16, 2011 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CHF, AED

POUND STERLING

This morning’s UK Retail Sales figures for May severely disappointed the market. The figure showed a monthly contraction of 1.4% last month, cancelling out April’s better-than-anticipated shop sales numbers. With no further UK data of note due for release this week, these numbers will feature heavily in the minds of investors until next week’s session gets underway. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6101

The Greenback has enjoyed another day of gains in the currency markets, with the GBP USD and EUR USD rates both down by over 0.50% at the start of the North American session. As fears over an escalation of Greece’s debt crisis take a tighter hold on the market, investors are likely to put thoughts of the US Dollar losing its status as the world economy’s leading reserve currency to one side and pile further funds into the safe haven of the US T-Bill. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1422

The Euro has lost further ground against the other majors on the day following the leak of a memo by an official who was present at yesterday’s EU Commissioners’ meeting in Brussels yesterday. The official reported that EU German policy-makers were ready to allow Greece to default on its debt commitments and predicted that this would call into question ‘the viability of the ECB itself’, due to the European Central Bank’s exposure to Greek bonds. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEGATIVE.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5334

The Aussie has once again eased in the markets today, following heavy losses for global equity markets over the last twenty-four hours. The current dip in appetite for risk looks set to last until Eurozone policy makers put forward a viable plan to deal with Greece’s debt crisis. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


SWISS FRANC – The Pound Swiss Franc exchange rate (GBP/CHF) is 1.3665

The Franc has powered to a record high against the Euro today, as investors continue to abandon Europe’s beleaguered single currency. Earlier today, the Swiss National Bank elected to maintain their ultra-loose monetary policy stance, keeping rates at 0.25%. Comments which accompanied the release aired concerns about the effect that the strong Franc is having on Switzerland’s domestic manufacturing base, leaving the Franc susceptible to downside if fears over Greece’s debt crisis subside. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


ARAB EMIRATES DIRHAM – The Pound Dirham exchange rate (GBP/AED) is 5.9130

The Dirham remains directly pegged to the US Dollar, so any relative strength in the USD is directly mirrored in Dirham movements. This has seen sustained support for the Dirham during recent sessions as institutional investors moved into the safe haven of the US treasury bill. The GBP AED rate looks likely to hold below the 6.00 level until fears over a Eurozone sovereign debt meltdown subside. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.

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