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Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Predictions For GBP EUR, Forecasts For USD And NZD

January 15, 2013 - Written by Tim Boyer

The POUND STERLING has struggled to gain any ground against the other major currencies so far today. This morning’s UK CPI inflation data showed at the expected annualised 2.7% level – anything less than this would have placed pressure on the UK tender. The next significant risk event of note comes on Friday in the form of December’s vital UK Retail Sales numbers. The Pound is expected to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing in the lead up to this risk event.

The EURO began today’s session on the wrong foot with the release of a worrying set of GDP data in Germany. The latest figures showed that economic activity in the eurozone’s premier economy expanded by a paltry 0.7% during 2012. The GDP figure suggests that the Teutonic economy actually contracted in the final three months of last year. The single currency has been on a strong run in recent weeks, so for technical and fundamental reasons, the short term outlook for the single currency is NEUTRAL. The current GBP EUR exchange rate stands at 1.2036.

The US DOLLAR has put in a poor showing so far this year and has been one of the worst performing of the sixteen most-actively traded currencies in 2013. With London’s FTSE 100 and New York’s Dow Jones both breaking to new four year highs within the last two weeks, demand for the ultimate safe haven of US T-Bills has been muted, heaping pressure on the Greenback. If this afternoon’s Advance US Retail Sales figures for December show at above the anticipated 0.2%, then the ‘Buck’ could trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing for the remainder of the week. The current GBP EUR exchange rate (currency : GBP USD) stands at 1.6041.

The NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR has registered healthy gains against Sterling on the day, sending the GBP NZD exchange rate (currency : GBP NZD) down to 1.9031 earlier. Last night’s New Zealand Card Spending figures for December revealed a monthly increase in the total value of card transactions, suggesting that the domestic economy in NZ remains in rude health. With global stock markets continuing to perform well, the NZD is expected to trade with a NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE bias in the near-term.
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