Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts For Euro, Pound Sterling, Dollar & New Zealand Dollar

Modified: Friday, 2 August 2013 18:34 BST - Written by James Fuller

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts For Euro, Pound Sterling, Dollar & New Zealand Dollar

Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasts For Euro, Pound Sterling, Dollar & New Zealand Dollar

The POUND STERLING has outperformed all of the other sixteen most-actively traded global currencies so far today. The UK unit was downsold in the leadup to yesterday’s Bank of England policy announcement in anticipation of the publication of another negative ‘Forward Guidance’ statement. However, the relief rally for Sterling which followed may prove to be ephemeral, as the statement is now due for release next Wednesday. Sterling expected to trade on a NEUTRAL footing as Wednesday approaches.

The EURO has lost around 0.40% against Sterling so far today, but has picked up a similar amount against the US Dollar. A lack of tier one data releases from the eurozone has allowed investors’ thoughts to linger on Mario Draghi’s comments of yesterday which were generally judged to be euro-positive. Next Thursday’s ECB Monthly Report is the next tier one risk event for the single currency. The current GBP EUR exchange rate stands at 1.1496 and the outlook for the euro is NEUTRAL.

The US DOLLAR has endured a sustained bout of selling pressure this afternoon thanks to a mixed bag of American labour market figures released earlier. The headline Non-Farm Payrolls job creation figure disappointed, showing at below the anticipated 185,000 figure and the Dollar-negativity which this triggered was accentuated by a downward revision to June’s counterpart number. The outlook for the Greenback is NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE and the GBP USD exchange rate stands at 1.5230.

The NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR has suffered pronounced downside so far today which has sent the GBP NZD exchange rate all the way up to 1.9450. The Kiwi has suffered following this afternoon’s US employment figures which revealed that the overall level of joblessness in the world’s premier economy shrank to 7.4% in July from the 7.6% of the month before. Analysts now suggest that a reduction in the Fed’s QE programme – a move which would harm the NZD - is close at hand. The New Zealand tender is forecast to trade with a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE bias in the near-term.

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