The POUND STERLING has struggled to push into positive territory so far today against any other tender and has given up significant ground against the high-yielders on the session. No data of note in the UK meant that the Pound was left to drift against the other majors, but all this is likely to change tomorrow morning with the publication of the minutes of November’s Bank of England policy meeting. The Bank appears to have jettisoned its policy of ‘talking down Sterling’ which was prevalent in the weeks following Mark Carney’s assent ion to the top job at Threadneedle Street, so the outlook for the Pound is NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.
The AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR bullied Sterling during today’s session, sending the GBP AUD exchange rate down to as low as 1.7123 earlier. The Aussie was well supported on the day thanks to last night’s comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glen Stevens which suggested that Australia’s export-driven economy is yet to enjoy the full benefits of the interest rate cuts which this bank carried out during the Summer months. The Australian tender is forecast to trade on a NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE footing ahead of tomorrow’s key US Federal Reserve FOMC minutes.
The EURO has moved ahead against the Pound and the US Dollar by around a fifth of a percentage point so far today. Investors appear willing to continue to push any thoughts of a potential further loosening of monetary policy to the backs of their minds, but this situation is by no means guaranteed to continue. A positive German ZEW survey saved the single currency on the day, but the euro is predicted to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing in the short-term. The current GBP EUR exchange rate stands at 1.1909.
The US DOLLAR remains at a low ebb, meaning that the GBP USD exchange rate sits just below its 2013 high. Market participants appeared unwilling to adjust their Dollar positions during today’s session, opting instead to keep their powder dry ahead of tomorrow evening’s all-important Federal Reserve minutes. Any confirmation that the Fed is in it for the long run with regards QE will further weaken the Buck. The Greenback is therefore forecast to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing moving forward.
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