Exchange Rate Forecasts & Predictions: Pound Sterling (GBP), Euro (EUR), Dollar (USD) & NZ Dollar (NZD)

Modified: Friday, 14 March 2014 14:05 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Exchange Rate Forecasts & Predictions: Pound Sterling (GBP), Euro (EUR), Dollar (USD) & NZ Dollar (NZD)

The POUND STERLING (currency:GBP) steadied itself against the other sixteen most actively traded global currencies during yesterday’s session. There were no significant UK data releases of note on the day, suggesting that the move was technical in nature, following the sustained Sterling sell-off which marked the early part of this week. Expectations are low for this morning’s UK Trade Balance numbers, with a deficit of above £2bn anticipated. However, an increase in the NIESR’s rolling quarterly UK GDP growth estimate earlier in the week continues to help the Pound, meaning that the UK unit is predicted to trade with a NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE bias moving forward.

A less than inspiring European Central Bank monthly report, published 24hrs ago, hampered the EURO (currency:EUR) on the day yesterday. The Euroland central bank’s observation that deflation could still be a potential problem for the region’s economy sent the Pound euro exchange rate up to close to 1.2000 GBP/EUR just after the European equities close. The next risk event of note for the single currency comes on Monday morning with the publication of the latest whole of eurozone inflation numbers. The tone of the ECB’s statement yesterday has stoked market rumours that these CPI price rise figures may be lower than anticipated, meaning that the euro is expected to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing moving forward.

Encouraging domestic Retail Sales data for last month helped the US DOLLAR (currency:USD) improve from trading rates above the 1.6700 threshold against the Pound during yesterday’ afternoon session. However, the positive effect of the February numbers on the Buck was partially offset by a surprise downgrading of January’s counterpart numbers. This afternoon’s Michigan Sentiment Index will send investors into the weekend with amended thoughts regarding the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The outlook for the Greenback is now NEUTRAL.

The NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (currency:NZD) enjoyed strong support during yesterday’s Asian session following the announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that it was hiking its Official Cash rate to 2.75%. The news sent the Pound New Zealand Dollar exchange rate down to as low as 1.9388 GBP/NZD during early trading. However, the gains for the pair proved to be ephemeral thanks to a brace of disappointing data releases from China just before the beginning of the European session. With fears regarding a slowdown in China increasing and with the RBNZ’s rate rise having been widely factored-in before it was announced, the outlook for the kiwi is only NEUTRAL.

Important Pound Sterling, Euro, US Dollar & NZ Dollar Exchange Rates (As of: 09:00 GMT 14/03/2014)

The Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate is trading down -0.12% at 1.19737 GBP/EUR.
The Pound Sterling to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate is trading down -0.08% at 1.94525 GBP/NZD.
The Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate is trading down -0.08% at 1.66079 GBP/USD.
The Euro to Pound Sterling exchange rate is trading up +0.12% at 0.83516 EUR/GBP.
The Euro to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate is trading up +0.04% at 1.62460 EUR/NZD.
The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is trading up +0.04% at 1.38703 EUR/USD.

The US Dollar to Euro exchange rate is trading down -0.04% at 0.72096 USD/EUR.
The US Dollar to Pound Sterling exchange rate is trading up +0.08% at 0.60212 USD/GBP.
The New Zealand Dollar to Euro exchange rate is trading down -0.04% at 0.61553 NZD/EUR.
The New Zealand Dollar to Pound Sterling exchange rate is trading up +0.08% at 0.51407 NZD/GBP.
The New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate is trading down -0% at 0.85377 NZD/USD.

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