Forecasts 2015 - Pound Exchange Rate (GBP) Losses Predicted vs Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) and US Dollar (USD)

September 10, 2014 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Forecasts 2015 - Pound Exchange Rate (GBP) Losses Predicted vs Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) and US Dollar (USD)

Exchange rate forecast 2014/ 2015 - The Pound Sterling (currency:GBP) staged a recovery against the other sixteen most actively-traded global currencies, including the Euro, US Dollar and Australian Dollar during the mid-week session.

However rumours suggest that the Pound Sterling forecast may be about to fall.

Support for Sterling on the day was driven by comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney regarding the likely effects of a ‘Yes’ vote in next week’s Scottish referendum. Although the Bank of England supremo attempted to remain politically neutral during his comments to the Treasury Select Committee, the implication of his words was clear – a vote in favour of independence from the Scottish people would destabilise Scotland’s economy. With regard the prospect of an independent Scotland haring the Pound Sterling, Carney observed that,
‘the scale of reserves that a country that adopts another country’s currency increases with the size of that country’s financial system, the complexity of its financial system, the extent of its (banking sector)’.

Observers inferred from the above comments that an independent Scotland would have to raise a massive tranche of funds on reserve in order to use the Pound. These could only be raised via taxation and this action would be likely to decimate a fledgling Scottish economy. Judging by the price action for the Pound euro exchange rate following Carney’s words, investors viewed the Governor’s words as carrying the necessary gravitas to scare floating voters away from a ‘Yes’ vote next Thursday. The GBP EUR exchange rate climbed back above the 1.25000 threshold as a result, having loitered in the 1.2300s during early trading.

However, if market whispers regarding the possible outcome of the latest opinion poll from Survation, due for publication tomorrow morning, prove correct then the Pound’s gains may prove ephemeral. The pollster’s Chief Executive Damian Lyons tweeted earlier today that the results of the poll, (carried out between 5th-9th September), are ‘quite something’. Most analysts have taken this as an indication that the ‘Yes’ campaign now enjoys a clear lead over the ‘better together’ campaign and if this proves to be the case, then expect the GBP EUR exchange rate to drop back into the 1.2300s tomorrow morning.

Expect market movement for the Pound Sterling against the Antipodean Dollars overnight, with the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy announcement coming at 22:00hrs BST while August’s Australian jobs data is due for release at 02:30hrs GMT tomorrow. There is an outside chance that the RBNZ will unexpectedly hike its key interest rate later tonight; in such a circumstance, look for the Pound to record fresh gains against the Kiwi. Meanwhile if the Aussie overall unemployment figure beats expectations of 6.3%, then GBP AUD will drop.

Latest Pound, Euro & US Dollar Exchange Rates Today

The Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar exchange rate is trading up +0.44% at 1.79413 GBP/AUD.
The Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar exchange rate is trading up +0.14% at 1.79614 GBP/CAD.
The Pound Sterling to Swiss Franc exchange rate is trading down -0.01% at 1.52093 GBP/CHF.
The Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate is trading up +0.06% at 1.25815 GBP/EUR.
The Pound Sterling to Mexican Peso exchange rate is trading up +0.05% at 21.51191 GBP/MXN.
The Pound Sterling to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate is trading up +0.08% at 1.98758 GBP/NZD.
The Pound Sterling to Turkish Lira exchange rate is trading up +0.13% at 3.57843 GBP/TRY.
The Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate is trading up +0.05% at 1.62574 GBP/USD.
The Pound Sterling to South African Rand exchange rate is trading up +0.07% at 17.83752 GBP/ZAR.

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