June 22, 2015 - Written by John Cameron
STORY LINK Pound Sterling to 'Aussie' (GBP/AUD) Exchange Rate Outlook ? Blackrock Predicts Aussie Losses this Year
Chinese Data Undermines GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Trading Today
Although Australia's Leading Index and New House Price data was moderately disappointing, the Australian Dollar was supported against several of its main currency counterparts as China's Manufacturing PMI came in above forecast levels. The manufacturing gauge had been expected to print at 49.4 but it actually advanced to 49.6 - taking it closer to the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.
Forex Outlook for GBP, AUD, USD – Australian Dollar Softer against Pound after UK Data
Over the past five days the Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar exchange rate surged from a low of 1.9977 to achieve a high of 2.0534. The pairing was boosted as the UK’s sanguine economic reports improved Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike expectations. The nation’s inflation data returned to positive territory, retail sales climbed unexpectedly and average earnings jumped by more-than-anticipated. The ‘Aussie’, meanwhile, fluctuated in response to ebbing risk appetite, commodity price movements and RBA rate hike expectations.
AUD/USD Exchange Rate Declines Forecast by BlackRock, will the Aussie hit 70 cents?
The Australian Dollar could extend declines against the Pound this week if Australian data falls short of forecasts, but the AUD/USD exchange rate is also expected to tumble in the weeks and months ahead. One leading asset manager has asserted that the Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate could fall as low as 70 US cents by 2016 if the Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates again – as many industry experts believe will be the case.
According to BlackRock’s Stephen Miller; ‘The economy has some really challenging headwinds 70 cents, I still see that as a reasonable target by the end of this year and I think it probably goes lower in 2016.The reality is when you get a negative terms-of-trade shock the economy generally has a serious stumble and I don't see why it should be any different this time [...] I suspect the market is still short Aussie Dollars, I suspect the market is still long Aussie rates, but when we get some clean out in positioning and it looks a bit clearer, and you get some compelling entry levels to put on those sorts of trades, that's the time to do that.’
Australian Housing Confidence and Job Vacancies Data to Impact AUD to GBP, USD Exchange Rate Movement
This week’s economic calendar is looking pretty sparse in comparison to last week's, but there are some data releases worth making note of. Australia is set to publish the ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index, the nation’s House Price Index and Skilled Vacancies/Job Vacancies data. China’s Manufacturing PMI is also likely to inspire some Australian Dollar movement over the course of this week, as is any fluctuations in the price of iron ore – Australia’s main commodity.
The Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 2.0393
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TAGS: Australian Dollar Forecasts Pound Australian Dollar Forecasts Pound Forecasts