Latest Pound Sterling Exchange Rate Forecast against EUR USD AUD

Modified: Friday, 19 February 2016 16:34 BST - Written by James Fuller

STORY LINK Latest Pound Sterling Exchange Rate Forecast against EUR USD AUD

Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Outlook Neutral to Negative

The POUND STERLING (currency : GBP) enjoyed increased support in the global currency markets yesterday after several senior EU officials expressed confidence in the likelihood of a deal being reached. However, these renewed gains are by no means guaranteed to persist into today’s session.

The Pound will be tested by January’s Retail Sales data – out later this morning – and last month’s public sector borrowing figures, although the EU negotiations could overshadow the data. The outlook for the UK unit is now NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Outlook Neutral to Negative

The EURO (currency : EUR) struggled to assert itself against the other sixteen most actively traded global currencies yesterday, in spite of a go-ahead set of December trade numbers.

The headline whole of eurozone Current Account data revealed a healthy export surplus of €41.4 bn over imports into the region.

This afternoon’s euroland Consumer Confidence survey could change all this, but in the meantime, the shared currency is expected to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE bias. The current GBP EUR exchange rate stands at 1.2910.

US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rate Outlook Neutral to Negative

The US DOLLAR (currency : USD) continued its positive performance in the markets yesterday, in spite of the Federal Reserve’s downbeat midweek assessment of the current global economic situation.

Futures markets are pricing-in a 59.2% likelihood that US interest rates will remain at their current level of 0.50% through to the end of the year. This represents a significant turnaround from last Christmas, when the same futures market participants believed rates would be heading higher in March 2016.

The near-term renaissance for the Buck may therefore prove ephemeral and the US unit is forecast to perform on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing moving forward. The current GBP USD exchange rate stands at 1.4329.

Australian Dollar (AUD) Exchange Rate Outlook Neutral to Negative

The AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (currency : AUD) suffered a significant blow when January’s local jobs data was published during the early hours of Thursday morning.

The surprise increase in the overall level of joblessness Down Under to 6.0% is likely to hold back the Aussie moving forward and a generalised downshift in investor sentiment yesterday afternoon could weigh down the Australian tender for the remainder of this month.

The outlook for the Dollar from Down Under is now NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE and the GBP AUD exchange rate stands at 2.0060.

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