Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast vs EUR USD AUD - Dark Times Ahead if Budget is not Organised

Modified: Wednesday, 23 March 2016 16:45 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast vs EUR USD AUD - Dark Times Ahead if Budget is not Organised

Pound movement today has been downbeat, owing to no UK data coming out and the spectre of disability cuts persisting in the House of Commons.

The Pound has lost out by a landslide today due to the controversial 2016 Budget statement not getting a resolution in the House of Commons.

Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Outlook Neutral to Negative

The POUND STERLING (currency : GBP) was hampered during early trade yesterday by the general impression that the UK’s ruling Conservative party is beginning to splinter into a series of self-interested factions.

The weekend resignation of former leader Iain Duncan-Smith from the cabinet over a budget row has added to this feeling and has increased the likelihood that the UK will vote to leave the EU in June.

The outlook for Sterling is now NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Outlook Neutral to Negative

The EURO (currency : EUR) has so far avoided any significant downside following the confirmation from the European Central Bank (ECB) that it will be upping its controversial Quantitative Easing programme to a heady €80bn per month.


Yesterday morning’s below par Current Account data for the whole of eurozone didn’t help the shared currency’s cause and the euro is now forecast to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing moving forward.

The GBP EUR exchange rate suits at 1.2788.

US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rate Outlook Neutral

Support for the US DOLLAR (currency : USD) has firmed somewhat since last week’s decidedly downbeat message from the Federal Reserve.

Futures markets now price in a less than 7% chance that the Fed will increase its benchmark interest rate next month – a fact which is likely to provide a drag on the Buck into the medium term.

Thursday’s US Durable Goods Orders data could prove market-moving – in the meantime, the Greenback is forecast to trade on a NEUTRAL footing.

The GBP USD exchange rate stands at 1.4372.

Australian Dollar (AUD) Exchange Rate Outlook Neutral to Positive

The latest Australian house price data, due for publication overnight, could affect the relative value of the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (currency : AUD).

The latest version of the property price statistics, covering Q3 2015, showed a sharp increase of 10.7%.

Tomorrow’s edition is expected to show that property price growth Down Under has slowed to 8.5%. Such a result may give the Reserve Bank of Australia leeway to consider further interest rate cuts this year; on that basis, the outlook for the Aussie Dollar is NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.

The current GBP AUD exchange rate stands at 1.8970.

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